Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? |
Yes |
No |
464.20
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5900
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Mar 01 2025
|
|
-273.88
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-273.88
|
Trades
|
Will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August? |
Yes |
No |
0.60
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 01 2024
|
|
-550.35
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-550.35
|
Trades
|
Emmett Shear still CEO of OpenAI by end of week? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
✅ |
1,094.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,094.36
|
Trades
|
OpenAI board out by end of week? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
✅ |
1,013.21
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,013.21
|
Trades
|
Ilya still at OpenAI on Jan 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jan 01 2024
|
✅ |
67.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
67.32
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.08 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
1,595.37
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9743
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1,595.37
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1,554.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
41.07
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.18 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15.00
|
0.00% |
|
-0.8464
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
15.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
12.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
27.70
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.05 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 30 2023
|
✅ |
20.17
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
20.17
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.11 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.88
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.88
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
16.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
17.38
|
Trades
|
Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
14.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
14.16
|
Trades
|
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher) |
Yes |
No |
257.20
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9823
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
257.20
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-252.64
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.56
|
Trades
|
Sam Altman announces new company by Nov 24? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 24 2023
|
✅ |
1.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.11
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on December 1, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 01 2023
|
✅ |
1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.00
|
Trades
|
Will OpenAI Merge with Anthropic in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.45
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.45
|
Trades
|
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on November 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
0.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.03
|
Trades
|
OpenAI permanent CEO by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
936.96
|
0.00% |
|
0.0055
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-5.18
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-5.18
|
Trades
|
Adam D'Angelo leaves OpenAI board by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
871.58
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0086
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-7.47
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7.47
|
Trades
|
Sam Altman back on OpenAI board by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-14.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-14.04
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on February 1, 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
795.92
|
0.00% |
|
0.0352
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 01 2024
|
✅ |
-28.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-28.00
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.15 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1,272.18
|
0.00% |
|
0.2360
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-300.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-300.26
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.13 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
7,434.73
|
0.00% |
|
0.0766
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-569.52
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-569.52
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,853.45
|
15.02
|
|
|
-490.31
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,378.16
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
-824.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-824.23
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,853.45
|
15.02
|
|
|
-1,314.53
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
553.94
|
|