House control after 2024 election? |
Democratic |
Republican |
1.72
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5800
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Adam Neumann buy back WeWork in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.22
|
0.00% |
|
0.8200
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Epstein documents name Donald Trump? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
6.69
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.69
|
Trades
|
Will US attack Yemen in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
4.21
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.21
|
Trades
|
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 21 2023
|
β
|
3.76
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.76
|
Trades
|
Will unverified Twitter users be able to see more than 1k posts per day by July 10? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jul 10 2023
|
β
|
3.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.14
|
Trades
|
Will there be widespread flooding in LA? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Aug 23 2023
|
β
|
3.06
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.06
|
Trades
|
US response to Iranβs drone attack by Jan 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
2.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.33
|
Trades
|
BTC above $28,000 at end of August? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 31 2023
|
β
|
2.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.26
|
Trades
|
US inflation >0.2% from Nov to Dec 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Jan 11 2024
|
β
|
2.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.08
|
Trades
|
Will Prigozhin be arrested by July 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jul 15 2023
|
β
|
1.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.70
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis drop out first? |
Haley |
DeSantis |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
β
|
1.63
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.63
|
Trades
|
Military intervention in Niger by September 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 15 2023
|
β
|
1.53
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.53
|
Trades
|
ETH above $1,700 on Sep 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 01 2023
|
β
|
1.27
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.27
|
Trades
|
Will X start charging all users? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
1.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.11
|
Trades
|
Which party will win the 2024 United States presidential election? |
Democratic |
Republican |
0.00
|
2.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.5000
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
2.00
|
Fri Nov 08 2024
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.00
|
Trades
|
Super Bowl LVIII: Coin Toss Heads or Tails? |
Heads |
Tails |
1.96
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5100
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.96
|
0.00
|
Sat Feb 10 2024
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.96
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Feb 24 2024
|
β
|
0.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.60
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
β
|
0.52
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.52
|
Trades
|
Will Vladimir Putin say Nazi in his upcoming interview with Tucker Carlson? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Feb 07 2024
|
β
|
0.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.49
|
Trades
|
Binance insolvent in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4.36
|
0.00% |
|
0.9100
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
4.36
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-3.97
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.39
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its July meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jul 25 2023
|
β
|
0.37
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.37
|
Trades
|
SBF sentenced to 50+ years? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
β
|
0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.30
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
0.22
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.22
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise rates again in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.11
|
Trades
|
Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
0.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
Trades
|
Will Twitter announce bankruptcy in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.06
|
0.00% |
|
0.9400
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.06
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.06
|
Trades
|
Sam Altman announces new company by Nov 24? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.05
|
0.00% |
|
0.9500
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.05
|
Fri Nov 24 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.05
|
Trades
|
Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel by Oct 14? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 14 2023
|
β
|
-0.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.32
|
Trades
|
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.35
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.35
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
β
|
-0.37
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.37
|
Trades
|
Hamas still in power in Gaza by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
β
|
-0.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.46
|
Trades
|
Will Trump win every state in Republican Nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jun 25 2024
|
β
|
-0.63
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.63
|
Trades
|
Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.66
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.66
|
Trades
|
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.79
|
Trades
|
Will the Epstein documents name Elon Musk? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
-0.87
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.87
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by August 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.88
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.88
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by October 2? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 02 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2024 election? |
Democrats |
Republicans |
1.14
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.8800
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will PiS get over 36% of votes in the 2023 Polish parliamentary election? |
Yes |
No |
1.72
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5800
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 14 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
1.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4.35
|
0.00% |
|
0.2300
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 23 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Trump and Biden both win nomination? |
Yes |
No |
1.35
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its September meeting? |
Yes |
No |
8.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1200
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Sep 20 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Biden drop out of presidential race? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.04
|
0.00% |
|
0.4900
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by November 19? |
Yes |
No |
1.52
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 19 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.92
|
0.00% |
|
0.5200
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in South Gaza by Dec 8? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.08
|
0.00% |
|
0.4800
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 08 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will SBF get Adderall in jail? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.5000
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Sep 30 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
4.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump tweet again by Aug 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 31 2023
|
β
|
-2.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.08
|
Trades
|
US Ethereum ETF approved in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.10
|
50.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-2.61
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.61
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.96
|
8.50
|
|
|
6.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
16.92
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.96
|
8.50
|
|
|
4.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
14.92
|
|