Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
11.12
|
0.00% |
|
0.8990
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
11.11
|
0.00% |
|
0.9000
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will X start a crypto trading platform this year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
30.62
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
30.62
|
Trades
|
Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
22.41
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
22.41
|
Trades
|
US debt ceiling hike by July 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jul 01 2023
|
✅ |
15.97
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
15.97
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
12.22
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.22
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
✅ |
10.43
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.43
|
Trades
|
Will Elon Musk be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
✅ |
10.41
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.41
|
Trades
|
Will the Palestinian Authority gain control of Gaza in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
10.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.30
|
Trades
|
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
10.24
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.24
|
Trades
|
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on September 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Sep 30 2023
|
✅ |
6.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.42
|
Trades
|
Will an FTX acquisition of Robinhood be announced by September 20? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 20 2022
|
✅ |
4.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.16
|
Trades
|
Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by October 1, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 01 2022
|
✅ |
3.93
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.93
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
22.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9090
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
22.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
-20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.00
|
Trades
|
Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $87.50 or more on September 19, 2022? (OCT 2022 Future) |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Sep 19 2022
|
✅ |
1.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.16
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Rogan win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
21.12
|
0.00% |
|
0.9470
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
21.12
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
✅ |
-20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.12
|
Trades
|
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
✅ |
0.85
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.85
|
Trades
|
Will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.75
|
0.00% |
|
0.9300
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
10.75
|
Thu Aug 01 2024
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.75
|
Trades
|
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023? |
Yes |
No |
11.32
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0148
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 31 2022
|
✅ |
-0.17
|
0.90
|
0.00
|
0.73
|
Trades
|
Will Brian Armstrong remain CEO of Coinbase through 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 31 2022
|
✅ |
0.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.68
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH flip $BTC in market cap in 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Sun Jan 01 2023
|
✅ |
0.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.68
|
Trades
|
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
20.62
|
0.00% |
|
0.9700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
20.62
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
✅ |
-20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.62
|
Trades
|
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 31 2022
|
✅ |
0.61
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.61
|
Trades
|
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.60
|
0.00% |
|
0.9940
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
100.60
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
✅ |
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.60
|
Trades
|
Will Kanye West win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.16
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
✅ |
0.00
|
0.54
|
0.00
|
0.55
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 43.3% or higher on January 7? |
Yes |
No |
1.46
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6826
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.46
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 08 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.46
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on February 1, 2024? |
Yes |
No |
18.46
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9750
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
18.46
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 01 2024
|
✅ |
-18.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.46
|
Trades
|
Will Ben Shapiro win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.44
|
0.00% |
|
0.9575
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
10.44
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.44
|
Trades
|
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.40
|
0.00% |
|
0.9616
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
10.40
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.40
|
Trades
|
Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.31
|
0.00% |
|
0.9700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
10.31
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.31
|
Trades
|
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.29
|
0.00% |
|
0.9722
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
10.29
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.29
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on June 1, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
20.26
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9870
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
20.26
|
0.00
|
Thu Jun 01 2023
|
✅ |
-20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.26
|
Trades
|
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 6 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.23
|
0.00% |
|
0.9778
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
10.23
|
Fri Jan 06 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.23
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on August 1, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
10.15
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9850
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
10.15
|
0.00
|
Tue Aug 01 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.15
|
Trades
|
Will Hamas surrender in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.10
|
Trades
|
Will another nation declare war in the Israel-Hamas conflict? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.04
|
Trades
|
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on November 1, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
6.54
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0007
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 01 2022
|
✅ |
-0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.00
|
Trades
|
Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by December 31, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Sat Dec 31 2022
|
✅ |
-0.02
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on October 1, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.02
|
0.00% |
|
0.0247
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 01 2022
|
✅ |
-0.05
|
0.01
|
0.00
|
-0.04
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50 bps after its November meeting? |
Yes |
No |
3,185.54
|
0.00
|
2.63% |
0.0003
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 02 2022
|
✅ |
-1.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.03
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on December 1, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
33,661.83
|
12.88% |
|
0.0001
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Dec 01 2022
|
✅ |
-2.51
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.51
|
Trades
|
Will the price of $ETH be above $1350 on October 14? |
Yes |
No |
4.84
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9416
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 14 2022
|
✅ |
-4.56
|
1.08
|
0.00
|
-3.48
|
Trades
|
Will a hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 U.S. states in October? |
Yes |
No |
4.47
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9621
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 31 2022
|
✅ |
-4.30
|
0.08
|
0.00
|
-4.22
|
Trades
|
Will Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3.38
|
0.00% |
|
2.3624
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-7.97
|
1.63
|
0.00
|
-6.34
|
Trades
|
Will weekly jobless initial claims exceed 205k for the week ending on September 17? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4.61
|
0.00% |
|
2.1590
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Sep 22 2022
|
✅ |
-9.95
|
0.99
|
0.00
|
-8.96
|
Trades
|
Which party will win the 2024 United States presidential election? |
Democratic |
Republican |
309.37
|
0.00
|
7.23% |
0.0302
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 08 2024
|
✅ |
-9.35
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-9.35
|
Trades
|
Will Sam Altman testify before congress by May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.99
|
0.00% |
|
0.9100
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? |
Yes |
No |
15.87
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 20 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
47.62
|
0.00% |
|
0.2100
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will Elon and Zuck announce a fight? |
Yes |
No |
66.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jul 01 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Another Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
38.46
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will $BTC or $ETH perform better in 2022? |
Bitcoin |
Ethereum |
0.00
|
17.63
|
0.00% |
|
0.5671
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 01 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will TWTR be delisted from the NYSE by December 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
13.25
|
0.00% |
|
0.7547
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 30 2022
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will SBF be federally indicted by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
12.26
|
0.00% |
|
0.8154
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 31 2022
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will the price of Polygon ($MATIC) be above $0.825 on October 14? |
Yes |
No |
4.84
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
3.3086
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 14 2022
|
✅ |
-16.01
|
0.56
|
0.00
|
-15.45
|
Trades
|
Will Taylor Swift be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
36.22
|
0.00% |
|
0.8284
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
✅ |
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 42.5% or higher on September 22? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
6.65
|
0.00% |
|
12.8621
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Sep 22 2022
|
✅ |
-85.53
|
9.35
|
0.00
|
-76.18
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
72.35
|
204.77
|
|
|
-379.20
|
15.15
|
0.00
|
-86.93
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
-20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-20.00
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
72.35
|
204.77
|
|
|
-399.20
|
15.15
|
0.00
|
-106.93
|
|