Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
5,583.78
|
0.00% |
|
0.9312
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-5,199.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-5,199.80
|
Trades
|
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
5,634.25
|
0.00% |
|
0.9094
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-5,123.63
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-5,123.63
|
Trades
|
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3,608.50
|
0.00% |
|
0.8839
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-3,189.39
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3,189.39
|
Trades
|
Will Snoop smoke again in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3,820.92
|
0.00% |
|
0.5226
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1,996.77
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1,996.77
|
Trades
|
Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March? |
Yes |
No |
1,400.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5700
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
-798.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-798.00
|
Trades
|
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? |
Yes |
No |
0.04
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-713.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-713.36
|
Trades
|
Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
952.64
|
0.00% |
|
0.5619
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-535.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-535.25
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.11 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
445.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.6300
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-280.35
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-280.35
|
Trades
|
GTA 6 release date by end of year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
437.60
|
0.00% |
|
0.3500
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-153.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-153.16
|
Trades
|
Will Zelensky visit Israel by Nov 10? |
Yes |
No |
201.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 10 2023
|
✅ |
-150.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-150.75
|
Trades
|
Emmett Shear still CEO of OpenAI by end of week? |
Yes |
No |
200.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6100
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
✅ |
-122.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-122.00
|
Trades
|
Will WeWork announce bankruptcy in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.8400
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-84.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-84.00
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.13 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.7000
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-70.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-70.00
|
Trades
|
Will Biden be impeached by September 30, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
48.89
|
0.00% |
|
0.9940
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Sep 30 2023
|
✅ |
-48.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-48.60
|
Trades
|
Trump and Biden both win nomination? |
Yes |
No |
54.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
✅ |
-39.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-39.42
|
Trades
|
Temporary ceasefire for hostages deal by Nov 10? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
800.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9980
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
800.00
|
Fri Nov 10 2023
|
✅ |
-798.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.60
|
Trades
|
Will Trump be Speaker by Mar 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
144.06
|
0.00% |
|
0.9790
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
144.06
|
Fri Mar 01 2024
|
✅ |
-141.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.03
|
Trades
|
Will Trudeau announce resignation by EoY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
51.85
|
0.00% |
|
0.9400
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
51.85
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-48.74
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.11
|
Trades
|
Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
3.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.60
|
Trades
|
Ledger hacker identified by end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9400
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
100.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-94.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
Trades
|
New lockdown in US? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jan 31 2023
|
✅ |
7.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.60
|
Trades
|
Will Twitter announce bankruptcy in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
333.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
333.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-323.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
9.99
|
Trades
|
Will Milady flip MAYC by March 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1,000.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9900
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1,000.00
|
Fri Mar 01 2024
|
✅ |
-990.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump violate bail by September 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
500.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
500.00
|
Sat Sep 30 2023
|
✅ |
-485.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
15.00
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
550.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9500
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
550.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-522.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
27.50
|
Trades
|
Will Biden be impeached by December 31, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
31.74
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
31.74
|
Trades
|
Taylor Swift pregnant before March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1,448.47
|
0.00% |
|
0.9700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1,448.47
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
-1,405.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
43.45
|
Trades
|
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2,134.52
|
0.00% |
|
0.9749
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
2,134.52
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-2,081.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
53.52
|
Trades
|
Friend.Tech airdrop in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2,039.71
|
0.00% |
|
0.9700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
2,039.71
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1,978.52
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
61.19
|
Trades
|
Russian nuke in space by March 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3,600.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9797
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
3,600.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-3,527.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
73.00
|
Trades
|
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3,928.74
|
0.00% |
|
0.9800
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
3,928.74
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
✅ |
-3,850.17
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
78.57
|
Trades
|
Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2,000.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9600
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
2,000.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-1,920.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
80.00
|
Trades
|
Another Ledger leak/exploit by Mar 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4,000.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9760
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
4,000.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-3,904.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
96.00
|
Trades
|
Will US attack Iran by February 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
5,432.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9800
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
5,432.00
|
Thu Feb 15 2024
|
✅ |
-5,323.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
108.64
|
Trades
|
Will Israel attack Iran by February 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4,360.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
4,360.00
|
Thu Feb 15 2024
|
✅ |
-4,229.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
130.80
|
Trades
|
Will the US publicly state that Iran was directly involved with the recent attack on Israel in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1,114.59
|
0.00% |
|
0.8792
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1,114.59
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-979.94
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
134.65
|
Trades
|
Will Elon get someone pregnant before July? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
✅ |
186.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
186.80
|
Trades
|
Will Michelle Obama announce presidential run before August? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jul 31 2024
|
✅ |
192.98
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
192.98
|
Trades
|
Will SpaceX's Starship reach outer space by September 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 29 2023
|
✅ |
204.61
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
204.61
|
Trades
|
North Korea nuke by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4,832.61
|
0.00% |
|
0.9515
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
4,832.61
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-4,598.13
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
234.48
|
Trades
|
Biden cognitive test before April? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4,422.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9232
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
4,422.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-4,082.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
339.54
|
Trades
|
Will Iran officially join the war before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
344.93
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
344.93
|
Trades
|
North Korea nuke by March 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
13,879.12
|
0.00% |
|
0.9697
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
13,879.12
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-13,458.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
421.11
|
Trades
|
Binance insolvent in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
5,050.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.8958
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
5,050.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-4,524.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
526.00
|
Trades
|
Will Remilia's stolen funds be returned this month? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
21,975.69
|
0.00% |
|
0.9737
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
21,975.69
|
Sat Sep 30 2023
|
✅ |
-21,398.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
576.87
|
Trades
|
Will SpaceX's Starship reach outer space by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 30 2023
|
✅ |
581.27
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
581.27
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.18 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
847.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
847.03
|
Trades
|
Was Sam Altman fired for sexually abusing his sister? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
1,015.64
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,015.64
|
Trades
|
Will Israel invade Lebanon by January 20? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 20 2024
|
✅ |
1,109.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,109.10
|
Trades
|
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher) |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
1,120.31
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,120.31
|
Trades
|
Will Bing suspend its AI chatbot by February 28? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Feb 28 2023
|
✅ |
1,266.89
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,266.89
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
25,257.77
|
0.00% |
|
0.9451
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
25,257.77
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-23,870.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,387.51
|
Trades
|
Netanyahu out by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
✅ |
1,425.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,425.40
|
Trades
|
Will Israel invade Lebanon before March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
17,943.53
|
0.00% |
|
0.9063
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
17,943.53
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
-16,262.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,681.45
|
Trades
|
Joe Biden impeached before 2024 election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
8,042.70
|
0.00% |
|
0.7787
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
8,042.70
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
✅ |
-6,262.67
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,780.03
|
Trades
|
SBF sentenced to 50+ years? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
✅ |
1,950.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,950.68
|
Trades
|
Will Hamas release 20+ hostages in a single day by Nov 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 15 2023
|
✅ |
2,045.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2,045.80
|
Trades
|
NVIDIA flips Apple in market cap by April 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 30 2024
|
✅ |
2,120.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2,120.23
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
52,200.25
|
0.00% |
|
0.9513
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
52,200.25
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
✅ |
-49,659.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2,540.83
|
Trades
|
Hunter Biden arrested before April? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
3,090.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3,090.00
|
Trades
|
Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
✅ |
3,318.92
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3,318.92
|
Trades
|
Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Oct 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 15 2023
|
✅ |
3,821.81
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3,821.81
|
Trades
|
Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel by Oct 14? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 14 2023
|
✅ |
3,936.59
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3,936.59
|
Trades
|
Will the GTA 6 trailer get >600m views on day 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 12 2023
|
✅ |
4,388.47
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4,388.47
|
Trades
|
US call for Gaza ceasefire before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
4,398.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4,398.20
|
Trades
|
Hamas still in power in Gaza by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
✅ |
4,756.35
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4,756.35
|
Trades
|
US military intervention by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
5,107.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5,107.46
|
Trades
|
Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel in January? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
8,173.43
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8,173.43
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30, 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
✅ |
8,271.85
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8,271.85
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on June 1, 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jun 01 2024
|
✅ |
9,183.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
9,183.26
|
Trades
|
Will Ye say something antisemitic before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
10,847.67
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10,847.67
|
Trades
|
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 15 2024
|
✅ |
17,006.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
17,006.03
|
Trades
|
Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 23 2023
|
✅ |
39,806.38
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
39,806.38
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
550.00
|
186,590.61
|
|
|
-41,147.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
145,993.26
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
-13,512.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-13,512.82
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
550.00
|
186,590.61
|
|
|
-54,660.18
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
132,480.44
|
|