Fed rate cut by May 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 01 2024
|
|
128.88
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
128.88
|
Trades
|
Will Biden drop out of presidential race? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
|
8.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8.00
|
Trades
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.05 |
0.95 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
|
0.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.03
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by July 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jul 31 2024
|
|
-56.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-56.50
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by June 12? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jun 12 2024
|
|
-71.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-71.00
|
Trades
|
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
200.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.3900
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Mar 01 2025
|
|
-78.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-78.00
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by September 18? |
Yes |
No |
150.17
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7025
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Sep 18 2024
|
|
-105.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-105.50
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by November 7? |
Yes |
No |
200.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6150
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 07 2024
|
|
-123.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-123.00
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by December 18? |
Yes |
No |
200.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6650
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Dec 18 2024
|
|
-133.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-133.00
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by March 20? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 20 2024
|
β
|
880.48
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
880.48
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Feb 24 2024
|
β
|
401.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
401.50
|
Trades
|
Iceland volcanic eruption by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
281.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
281.00
|
Trades
|
Will Olivia Chow win the 2023 Toronto mayoral by-election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jun 26 2023
|
β
|
220.18
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
220.18
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.0% from April to May 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jun 12 2023
|
β
|
197.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
197.03
|
Trades
|
US debt ceiling hike by June 2? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 02 2023
|
β
|
172.47
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
172.47
|
Trades
|
ETH above $2,000 at end of August? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 31 2023
|
β
|
165.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
165.00
|
Trades
|
Will First Republic Bank fail by April 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
β
|
162.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
162.70
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH be above $1700 on March 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Mar 30 2023
|
β
|
150.85
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
150.85
|
Trades
|
Will there be 21+ named storms during the Atlantic Hurricane Season? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
β
|
134.86
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
134.86
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its September meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Sep 20 2023
|
β
|
121.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
121.00
|
Trades
|
Will PvdA-GL win a plurality in the 2023 Dutch General Election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 22 2023
|
β
|
113.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
113.00
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH be above $1750 on April 7? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Apr 06 2023
|
β
|
102.02
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
102.02
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.0% from June to July 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Aug 09 2023
|
β
|
100.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
100.10
|
Trades
|
$ETH above $1850 on April 14? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Apr 14 2023
|
β
|
95.96
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
95.96
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by February 29? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
81.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
81.40
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.1% from May to Jun 2023? |
Yes |
No |
293.38
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7242
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
293.38
|
0.00
|
Tue Jul 11 2023
|
β
|
-212.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
80.92
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.18 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
78.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
78.00
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
β
|
71.95
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
71.95
|
Trades
|
Israeli troops on the ground in Gaza by the end of this week? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 13 2023
|
β
|
64.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
64.01
|
Trades
|
Will ErdoΔan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun May 14 2023
|
β
|
55.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
55.60
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH be above $1750 on March 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Mar 30 2023
|
β
|
44.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
44.82
|
Trades
|
Will MbappΓ© leave PSG? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 01 2023
|
β
|
44.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
44.70
|
Trades
|
Will Aston Martin beat Mercedes in the 2023 F1 season? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
β
|
43.73
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
43.73
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.1% from June to July 2023? |
Yes |
No |
190.71
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7712
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
190.71
|
0.00
|
Wed Aug 09 2023
|
β
|
-147.07
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
43.64
|
Trades
|
Did US GDP grow 1.0% or more in Q2 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jul 26 2023
|
β
|
40.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
40.28
|
Trades
|
Saudi Aramco's 2023 net income >$120 billion? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jul 31 2024
|
β
|
37.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
37.00
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 20 2023
|
β
|
34.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
34.26
|
Trades
|
Will 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' movie gross over $125m opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 16 2023
|
β
|
31.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
31.00
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
27.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
27.00
|
Trades
|
US military intervention by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
26.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
26.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump be arrested on Tuesday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 21 2023
|
β
|
25.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
25.11
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' gross over $40m opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7500
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
100.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 20 2023
|
β
|
-75.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
25.00
|
Trades
|
ETH above $1,900 on April 11? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Apr 10 2023
|
β
|
24.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
24.68
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by July 12? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jul 12 2023
|
β
|
18.17
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
18.17
|
Trades
|
Will Biden be impeached by December 31, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
16.74
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
16.74
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed cut rates in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
16.64
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
16.64
|
Trades
|
ARB or SUI higher on May 19? |
ARB |
SUI |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri May 19 2023
|
β
|
13.85
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
13.85
|
Trades
|
ETH above $1,800 on April 3? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 02 2023
|
β
|
12.92
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.92
|
Trades
|
BTC above $30,000 on April 12? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Apr 12 2023
|
β
|
12.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.28
|
Trades
|
Will $ARB hit $1 or $2 first? |
$1 first |
$2 first |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
12.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.23
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise rates again in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
12.22
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.22
|
Trades
|
Will ETH hit $2,500 by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
12.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.00
|
Trades
|
BTC above $28,000 at end of August? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.2400
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
15.00
|
Thu Aug 31 2023
|
β
|
-3.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
11.40
|
Trades
|
Will Trump violate bail by September 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.8900
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
100.00
|
Sat Sep 30 2023
|
β
|
-89.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
11.00
|
Trades
|
Will US attack Yemen in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
10.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.60
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.1% from March to April 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 09 2023
|
β
|
10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.00
|
Trades
|
Will βTaylor Swift: Eras Tourβ have a bigger opening weekend than 'Barbie'? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9000
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
100.00
|
Mon Oct 16 2023
|
β
|
-90.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.00
|
Trades
|
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in October? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.00
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than -0.1% from April to May 2023? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9100
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
100.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jun 12 2023
|
β
|
-91.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
9.00
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than -0.1% from May to June 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jul 11 2023
|
β
|
8.15
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8.15
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after its May meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 02 2023
|
β
|
7.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.50
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its December meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Dec 13 2023
|
β
|
7.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.10
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its December meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 12 2023
|
β
|
6.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.83
|
Trades
|
ETH above $2,000 on June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
β
|
6.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.16
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.0% from May to June 2023? |
Yes |
No |
150.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9600
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
150.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jul 10 2023
|
β
|
-144.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.2% from March to April 2023? |
Yes |
No |
20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7500
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
20.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 09 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.00
|
Trades
|
Will a fourth US bank fail by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jul 01 2023
|
β
|
5.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 0 bps after its June meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
99.99
|
0.00% |
|
-0.0493
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jun 13 2023
|
β
|
4.93
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.93
|
Trades
|
Will Venezuela invade Guyana in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
4.77
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.77
|
Trades
|
Will 2024 have the hottest February on record? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 01 2024
|
β
|
4.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.00
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
25.00
|
0.00% |
|
-0.1440
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 31 2023
|
β
|
3.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.60
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH hit $2,000 again by July 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jul 31 2023
|
β
|
3.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.08
|
Trades
|
$ETH above $1800 on April 14? |
Yes |
No |
22.22
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9000
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
22.22
|
0.00
|
Fri Apr 14 2023
|
β
|
-20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.22
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.0% from February to March 2023? |
Yes |
No |
102.04
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9800
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
102.04
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 11 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.04
|
Trades
|
Will Tucker interview Putin? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Mon Feb 05 2024
|
β
|
1.78
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.79
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
β
|
1.67
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.67
|
Trades
|
Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
β
|
1.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.50
|
Trades
|
Will $BTC reach $30,000 by April 7? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.6500
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
3.00
|
Fri Apr 07 2023
|
β
|
-1.95
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.05
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH be above $1700 on April 7? |
Yes |
No |
101.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9900
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
101.01
|
0.00
|
Thu Apr 06 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.01
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
0.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.26
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.2% from April to May 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jun 12 2023
|
β
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Trades
|
BTC above $27,000 at end of September? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Sep 30 2023
|
β
|
-0.19
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.19
|
Trades
|
Will Conor McGregor return to the UFC by November 13? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 13 2023
|
β
|
-0.29
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.29
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.3% from August to September 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.33
|
0.00% |
|
0.2500
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Oct 11 2023
|
β
|
-0.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.33
|
Trades
|
ETH above $1,900 on April 12? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Apr 12 2023
|
β
|
-0.56
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.56
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH be above $1800 on April 7? |
Yes |
No |
131.13
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
1.0149
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
131.13
|
0.00
|
Thu Apr 06 2023
|
β
|
-133.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.96
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its September meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Sep 20 2023
|
β
|
-3.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.00
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Marvels' flop? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-3.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.00
|
Trades
|
USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-3.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.28
|
Trades
|
Will SpaceX's Starship reach outer space by September 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 29 2023
|
β
|
-3.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.60
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH be above $1800 on March 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Mar 30 2023
|
β
|
-4.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-4.05
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after its June meeting? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jun 13 2023
|
β
|
-6.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-6.00
|
Trades
|
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Sergio Massa win? |
Yes |
No |
0.02
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 21 2023
|
β
|
-6.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-6.01
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.3% from May to June 2023? |
Yes |
No |
113.53
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0639
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jul 11 2023
|
β
|
-7.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7.25
|
Trades
|
Will Trump's 538 favorability rating be 37.4% or higher on April 14? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.5000
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Apr 14 2023
|
β
|
-7.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7.50
|
Trades
|
SBF sentenced to 50+ years? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
β
|
-8.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-8.00
|
Trades
|
ETH above $1,800 on May 25? |
Yes |
No |
23.68
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4000
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 24 2023
|
β
|
-9.47
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-9.47
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 0 bps after its May meeting? |
Yes |
No |
15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7000
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 02 2023
|
β
|
-10.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.50
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.2% from May to June 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jul 11 2023
|
β
|
-14.71
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-14.71
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 0 bps after its March meeting? |
Yes |
No |
48.42
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3098
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 22 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH be above $1700 on March 24? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
45.45
|
0.00% |
|
0.3300
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 24 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.2% from February to March 2023? |
Yes |
No |
33.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 11 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by April 14? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
29.41
|
0.00% |
|
0.5100
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Apr 14 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Will Ron DeSantis file to run for president by June 30, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
300.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0500
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.1500
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden win the 2023 Women's World Cup? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Aug 19 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Will Hunter Biden be indicted by July 1, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
21.43
|
0.00% |
|
0.7000
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon May 01 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
BTC above $23,456.78 at end of September? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Sep 30 2023
|
β
|
-17.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-17.50
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.2% from June to July 2023? |
Yes |
No |
50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3700
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Aug 09 2023
|
β
|
-18.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-18.50
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.05 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 30 2023
|
β
|
-21.58
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-21.58
|
Trades
|
Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-27.54
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-27.54
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
β
|
-33.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-33.00
|
Trades
|
Will AI be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3700
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 14 2024
|
β
|
-37.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-37.00
|
Trades
|
Will NSC win a plurality in the 2023 Dutch General Election? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3700
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 22 2023
|
β
|
-37.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-37.00
|
Trades
|
Will there be 19 or more named storms during the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
200.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.2025
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 01 2023
|
β
|
-40.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-40.50
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.1% from April to May 2023? |
Yes |
No |
141.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2883
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jun 12 2023
|
β
|
-40.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-40.80
|
Trades
|
Will VVD win a plurality in the 2023 Dutch General Election? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4600
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 22 2023
|
β
|
-46.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-46.00
|
Trades
|
Will TD get over 11% of votes in the 2023 Polish parliamentary election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 15 2023
|
β
|
-47.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-47.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump be indicted a third time by July 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
149.54
|
0.00% |
|
0.3300
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
β
|
-49.35
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-49.35
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its July meeting? |
Yes |
No |
336.44
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1511
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jul 25 2023
|
β
|
-50.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.83
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' gross over $50m opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 20 2023
|
β
|
-55.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-55.00
|
Trades
|
Another Israel x Hamas ceasefire before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
-60.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-60.50
|
Trades
|
Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
β
|
-66.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-66.00
|
Trades
|
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03Β°C or higher) |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-66.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-66.70
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.08 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-67.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-67.28
|
Trades
|
Will Javier Milei win by more than 5% in the 2023 Argentina Presidential election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.7500
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Nov 18 2023
|
β
|
-75.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-75.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump be indicted a third time by August 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
576.19
|
0.00% |
|
0.1432
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Aug 30 2023
|
β
|
-82.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-82.50
|
Trades
|
US debt ceiling hike by June 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Jun 01 2023
|
β
|
-83.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-83.70
|
Trades
|
Will PVV win a plurality in the 2023 Dutch General Election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9200
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 22 2023
|
β
|
-92.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-92.00
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.11 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-93.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-93.10
|
Trades
|
Will 2024 have the hottest March on record? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 01 2024
|
β
|
-94.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-94.00
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.13 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.10
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-110.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-110.70
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.15 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
300.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.3950
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-118.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-118.50
|
Trades
|
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before April? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
1.9550
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
-195.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-195.50
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,210.51
|
218.02
|
|
|
1,096.65
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2,525.17
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
-430.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-430.09
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,210.51
|
218.02
|
|
|
666.56
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2,095.08
|
|