Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Feb 24 2024
|
β
|
26.29
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
26.29
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by March 20? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 20 2024
|
β
|
15.97
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
15.97
|
Trades
|
Hamas still in power in Gaza by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
β
|
12.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.83
|
Trades
|
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 21 2023
|
β
|
12.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.68
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by January 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
10.96
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.96
|
Trades
|
Which cryptocurrency will have higher market cap on November 18th: Cardano ($ADA) or Solana ($SOL)? |
Cardano |
Solana |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 18 2021
|
β
|
10.59
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.59
|
Trades
|
Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
β
|
10.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.42
|
Trades
|
Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
8.93
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8.93
|
Trades
|
Will Biden drop out by Friday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Feb 16 2024
|
β
|
5.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.32
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by September 18? |
Yes |
No |
6.70
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6506
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
6.70
|
0.00
|
Wed Sep 18 2024
|
β
|
-4.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.34
|
Trades
|
Will Cruise relaunch driverless taxis in SF by EoY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
1.35
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.35
|
Trades
|
Will Theranos executive Elizabeth Holmes be found guilty of fraud? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 01 2021
|
β
|
1.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.26
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on February 1, 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 01 2024
|
β
|
1.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.09
|
Trades
|
Mississippi gubernatorial election: Presley (D) vs. Reeves (R) |
Presley |
Reeves |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 07 2023
|
β
|
1.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.08
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by July 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jul 31 2024
|
β
|
1.02
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.02
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after its January meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.00
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. Supreme Court vote to reinstate Trump on Colorado's 2024 ballot? |
Yes |
No |
2.90
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6900
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
2.90
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 05 2024
|
β
|
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.90
|
Trades
|
Will the US Senate pass the Build Back Better Act by Christmas Eve? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 24 2021
|
β
|
0.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.82
|
Trades
|
Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
0.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.68
|
Trades
|
Trump jail before election day? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3.63
|
0.00% |
|
0.8260
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
3.63
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
β
|
-3.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.63
|
Trades
|
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win? |
Yes |
No |
2.60
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7700
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
2.60
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 13 2024
|
β
|
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.60
|
Trades
|
North Korea nuke by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.55
|
0.00% |
|
0.9480
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
10.55
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.55
|
Trades
|
Will "Biden" be said by every candidate in the 3rd RNC primary debate? |
Yes |
No |
1.54
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6500
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.54
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 07 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.54
|
Trades
|
Will a replacement for Jerome Powell as the Fed's chairman be announced by Noon ET, November 29, 2021? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 29 2021
|
β
|
0.52
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.52
|
Trades
|
Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
1.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7500
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.33
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.33
|
Trades
|
Will Hillary Clinton win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.31
|
0.00% |
|
0.9700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
10.31
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
β
|
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.31
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on June 1, 2024? |
Yes |
No |
7.26
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9642
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
7.26
|
0.00
|
Sat Jun 01 2024
|
β
|
-7.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.26
|
Trades
|
Will the Ethereum ($ETH) Market Cap be above $520 billion on December 9? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Dec 09 2021
|
β
|
0.24
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.24
|
Trades
|
Will the floor price of Chain Runners be above 1.25 ETH on December 2? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Dec 02 2021
|
β
|
0.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.23
|
Trades
|
Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last the full 4 days? |
Yes |
No |
1.20
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.8300
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.20
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.20
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out before Super Tuesday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3.19
|
0.00% |
|
0.9400
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
3.19
|
Tue Mar 05 2024
|
β
|
-3.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.19
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise rates again in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.19
|
0.00% |
|
0.8400
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.19
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.19
|
Trades
|
Will total value locked in DeFi be $115 billion or higher on November 27th? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Nov 27 2021
|
β
|
0.19
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.19
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 43.0% or higher at the end of November 23? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 24 2021
|
β
|
0.18
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.18
|
Trades
|
Temporary ceasefire for hostages deal by Nov 10? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3.17
|
0.00% |
|
0.9466
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
3.17
|
Fri Nov 10 2023
|
β
|
-3.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.17
|
Trades
|
Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou |
Fury |
Ngannou |
2.15
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9300
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
2.15
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 28 2023
|
β
|
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.15
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
2.13
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9400
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
2.13
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
β
|
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.13
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on December 1, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 01 2023
|
β
|
0.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.11
|
Trades
|
βAll I want for Christmas is Youβ #1 on Billboard Hot 100 first week of 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 06 2024
|
β
|
0.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.11
|
Trades
|
Egypt accept >1k Gazan refugees by Nov 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.10
|
0.00% |
|
0.9100
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.10
|
Wed Nov 15 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.10
|
Trades
|
Will it be possible to shop on Amazon using Bitcoin in the US before 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 01 2022
|
β
|
0.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
Trades
|
Will Musk fight Zuck in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4.08
|
0.00% |
|
0.9812
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
4.08
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-4.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
Trades
|
US military intervention by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.08
|
0.00% |
|
0.9290
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.08
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
Trades
|
Will Biden or Haley drop out first? |
Biden |
Haley |
0.00
|
1.06
|
0.00% |
|
0.9400
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.06
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.06
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
β
|
0.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.05
|
Trades
|
Will WeWork announce bankruptcy in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
0.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.04
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.25
|
0.00% |
|
0.0800
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? |
Yes |
No |
0.71
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 28 2024
|
β
|
-0.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.40
|
Trades
|
Emmett Shear still CEO of OpenAI by end of week? |
Yes |
No |
0.68
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
β
|
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will Mike Johnson be the next Speaker? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.1250
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
β
|
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
β
|
-0.78
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.78
|
Trades
|
US bank failure in March? |
Yes |
No |
2.32
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4016
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
-0.93
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.93
|
Trades
|
Trump and Biden both win nomination? |
Yes |
No |
1.47
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6800
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Newsom announce Feinstein's replacement by October 2? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.28
|
0.00% |
|
0.7800
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 02 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will the next speaker be elected by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.19
|
0.00% |
|
0.8400
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 30 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump win every state in Republican Nomination? |
Yes |
No |
1.10
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9100
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jun 25 2024
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
US bank failure in February? |
Yes |
No |
7.14
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Gavin Newsom win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
15.38
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
β
|
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Will more than 2.5 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before December 31? |
Yes |
No |
3.47
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5768
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 01 2022
|
β
|
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3.70
|
0.00% |
|
0.8100
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri May 31 2024
|
β
|
-3.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.00
|
Trades
|
Fani Willis removed from Trump case by March 15? |
Yes |
No |
10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6300
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 15 2024
|
β
|
-6.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-6.30
|
Trades
|
Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Oct 15? |
Yes |
No |
10.53
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 15 2023
|
β
|
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by October 2? |
Yes |
No |
12.05
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9126
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 02 2023
|
β
|
-11.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-11.00
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by May 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
12.93
|
0.00% |
|
1.8739
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
12.93
|
Wed May 01 2024
|
β
|
-24.22
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-11.30
|
Trades
|
Bitcoin all time high by Mar 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
13.25
|
0.00% |
|
0.9055
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
-12.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-12.00
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by June 12? |
Yes |
No |
5.88
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
2.6223
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jun 12 2024
|
β
|
-15.41
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.41
|
Trades
|
Will Kevin McCarthy be elected Speaker of the House in the 118th Congress? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
32.79
|
0.00% |
|
0.6100
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 04 2023
|
β
|
-20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-20.00
|
Trades
|
Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York on January 1, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
895.85
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2288
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 01 2022
|
β
|
-205.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-205.00
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
27.81
|
52.28
|
|
|
-254.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-174.36
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
27.81
|
52.28
|
|
|
-254.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-174.36
|
|