Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.02
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.93 |
0.07 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
1.02
|
0.06
|
0.00
|
1.08
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.87 |
0.13 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
|
0.62
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.63
|
Trades
|
Will Biden drop out of presidential race? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
|
0.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
Trades
|
Will Kanye West win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.02 |
0.98 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-0.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.03
|
Trades
|
Which party will win the 2024 United States presidential election? |
Democratic |
Republican |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.48 |
0.52 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 08 2024
|
|
-0.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.27
|
Trades
|
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-0.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.28
|
Trades
|
Temporary ceasefire for hostages deal by Nov 10? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 10 2023
|
✅ |
5.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.49
|
Trades
|
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be President of Ukraine on April 22, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Apr 22 2022
|
✅ |
4.18
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.18
|
Trades
|
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
3.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.83
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.69
|
0.00% |
|
-0.9767
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 31 2023
|
✅ |
1.65
|
0.72
|
0.00
|
2.38
|
Trades
|
Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat May 14 2022
|
✅ |
1.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.46
|
Trades
|
Will NATO expand by March 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Apr 01 2023
|
✅ |
1.13
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.13
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 31 2022
|
✅ |
1.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.01
|
Trades
|
Will TWTR be delisted from the NYSE by December 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 30 2022
|
✅ |
0.84
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.84
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50 bps after its December meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Dec 14 2022
|
✅ |
0.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.82
|
Trades
|
Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Mon Feb 05 2024
|
✅ |
0.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.70
|
Trades
|
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.69
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.69
|
Trades
|
Will Russia remain in G20 through November 1, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 01 2022
|
✅ |
0.55
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.55
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by January 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
0.47
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.47
|
Trades
|
Will NATO expand by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jul 01 2023
|
✅ |
0.41
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.41
|
Trades
|
Will Boris Johnson be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on May 20, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri May 20 2022
|
✅ |
0.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.36
|
Trades
|
Will any NATO member country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Jun 30 2022
|
✅ |
0.31
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.31
|
Trades
|
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.27
|
0.00% |
|
0.9740
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
10.27
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.27
|
Trades
|
American aid to Israel by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
2.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
-0.0975
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.26
|
Trades
|
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine through June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
✅ |
0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.20
|
Trades
|
Will an earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or above occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jun 01 2022
|
✅ |
0.19
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.19
|
Trades
|
Will Ukraine be a member state of the European Union by July 31, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jul 31 2022
|
✅ |
0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Tether (USDT) fall below 98 cents by July 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Sun Jul 31 2022
|
✅ |
0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.10
|
Trades
|
Will another nation declare war in the Israel-Hamas conflict? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3.30
|
0.00% |
|
0.9710
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
3.30
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-3.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Ethereum be above $3000 on March 1, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 01 2022
|
✅ |
0.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4.97
|
0.00% |
|
0.9840
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
4.97
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-4.89
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
Trades
|
Will any Russian bank be disconnected from SWIFT by April 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Fri Apr 01 2022
|
✅ |
0.07
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.07
|
Trades
|
Will Putin be reelected? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Tue May 07 2024
|
✅ |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.01 by March 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
103.70
|
0.00% |
|
0.0010
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 15 2022
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Russia & Ukraine declare a ceasefire by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
5.52
|
0.00% |
|
1.0249
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
5.52
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-5.65
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.14
|
Trades
|
USD/TRY (Turkish Lira) above 21 on June 9? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.02
|
100.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 09 2023
|
✅ |
-0.15
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.15
|
Trades
|
Will Ukraine formally cede Crimea, Luhansk, or Donetsk by May 31, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 31 2022
|
✅ |
-0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.30
|
Trades
|
Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 01 2023
|
✅ |
-0.45
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.45
|
Trades
|
Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by October 1, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3.76
|
0.00% |
|
0.1330
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 01 2022
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will ECDC announce a new COVID-19 "Variant of Concern" before August 2022? |
Yes |
No |
2.42
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4132
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jul 31 2022
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.22
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.22
|
Trades
|
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through June 30, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
✅ |
-1.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.68
|
Trades
|
Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $115 or more on March 15, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
2.73
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7328
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 15 2022
|
✅ |
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by September 16, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
5.92
|
0.00% |
|
0.3378
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 16 2022
|
✅ |
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Will Ukraine become a European Union candidate country by July 31st? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
7.88
|
0.00% |
|
0.3174
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jul 31 2022
|
✅ |
-2.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.50
|
Trades
|
Will NATO expand in 2022? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 01 2023
|
✅ |
-2.81
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.81
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by October 31? |
Yes |
No |
8.73
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3276
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
-2.86
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.86
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by February 29? |
Yes |
No |
2.30
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
1.2641
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
-2.91
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.91
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by Mar 9? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
129.62
|
0.00% |
|
0.0251
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Mar 09 2024
|
✅ |
-3.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.25
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.51
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.51
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-4.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.58
|
Trades
|
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before Nov 1? |
Yes |
No |
256.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0156
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
-4.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-4.00
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
1.43
|
0.00
|
0.02% |
2.8261
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
✅ |
-4.05
|
0.01
|
0.00
|
-4.04
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
8.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.8536
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
✅ |
-7.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7.40
|
Trades
|
US Congress approve more Ukraine aid in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-15.98
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.98
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.02
|
24.57
|
|
|
-58.09
|
0.74
|
0.00
|
-32.76
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.01
|
0.00
|
|
|
1.11
|
0.06
|
0.00
|
1.19
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.03
|
24.58
|
|
|
-56.98
|
0.80
|
0.00
|
-31.57
|
|