Blur airdrop by Nov 20? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 20 2023
|
β
|
3.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.20
|
Trades
|
Will Hamas release 20+ hostages in a single day by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
β
|
3.17
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.17
|
Trades
|
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before April? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
1.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.75
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in South Gaza by Dec 8? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 08 2023
|
β
|
1.69
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.69
|
Trades
|
Will Israel announce 24h+ humanitarian pause by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
β
|
1.56
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.56
|
Trades
|
Will ETH hit $3,000 in February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
1.51
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.51
|
Trades
|
Kate Middleton video appearance in March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
1.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.32
|
Trades
|
CZ jail before March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
1.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.14
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
β
|
0.93
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.93
|
Trades
|
Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
0.88
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.88
|
Trades
|
Will BTC hit $80,000 in March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
0.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.80
|
Trades
|
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 13 2024
|
β
|
0.73
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.73
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Feb 24 2024
|
β
|
0.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.70
|
Trades
|
Will ETH hit $2,500 in February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
0.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.70
|
Trades
|
Will 'Napoleon' gross over $32.5m over its 5-day opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 27 2023
|
β
|
0.62
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.63
|
Trades
|
Will Haley beat DeSantis in Iowa? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jan 15 2024
|
β
|
0.58
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.58
|
Trades
|
Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 17? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 17 2023
|
β
|
0.47
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.47
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. Supreme Court vote to reinstate Trump on Colorado's 2024 ballot? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 05 2024
|
β
|
0.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.46
|
Trades
|
Will Kanye release βVulturesβ Vol. 1 by Feb 9? |
Yes |
No |
0.78
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.78
|
0.00
|
Fri Feb 09 2024
|
β
|
-0.45
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.33
|
Trades
|
Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.72
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.72
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
-0.43
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.29
|
Trades
|
More hostages in Gaza freed before April? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.96
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.96
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
-0.71
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.25
|
Trades
|
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.99
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.99
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
-0.77
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.22
|
Trades
|
US inflation >0.2% from Nov to Dec 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Jan 11 2024
|
β
|
0.19
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.19
|
Trades
|
OpenSea token by May 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 01 2024
|
β
|
0.17
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.17
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by May 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.59
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.59
|
Wed May 01 2024
|
β
|
-0.44
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.16
|
Trades
|
Will Google announce 1000+ new layoffs before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.63
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.63
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.13
|
Trades
|
Will Vivek drop out of presidential race before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
0.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.12
|
Trades
|
Indonesia Presidential Election: Will Prabowo Subianto win? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Wed Feb 14 2024
|
β
|
0.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.12
|
Trades
|
Will BTC hit $55,000 in February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
0.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.12
|
Trades
|
Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 28 2024
|
β
|
0.06
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.06
|
Trades
|
Will Saudi Arabia accept invitation to join BRICS? |
Yes |
No |
0.18
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.18
|
0.00
|
Mon Jan 01 2024
|
β
|
-0.13
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.05
|
Trades
|
Will Hamas release 12+ hostages in a single day by EoY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.16
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.16
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.04
|
Trades
|
Will Saudi Arabia boost oil production in Q4? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Wed Jan 17 2024
|
β
|
0.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.04
|
Trades
|
USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.16
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.16
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.13
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.03
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.16
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.89 |
0.11 |
0.14
|
0.00
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
|
-0.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.02
|
Trades
|
Will 'Tears of the Kingdom' win Game of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.11
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.11
|
Thu Dec 07 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Bitcoin new all time high by Friday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 08 2024
|
β
|
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Will Venezuela invade Guyana in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.13
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.13
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Will Trump tweet again in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.11
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.11
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Will Houthis seize another ship by December 8? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.09
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.09
|
Fri Dec 08 2023
|
β
|
-0.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.10
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.10
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Trades
|
Will Elon Musk be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.10
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.10
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on February 1, 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 01 2024
|
β
|
-0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.00
|
Trades
|
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.02
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.02
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.96 |
0.04 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-0.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.04
|
Trades
|
Another Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.19
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.19
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.24
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.05
|
Trades
|
Will Circle IPO by June? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.23
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00
|
0.11
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
-0.17
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.06
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its January meeting? |
Yes |
No |
90.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0010
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
-0.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.09
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.09
|
Trades
|
Will Taylor Swift be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.12
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.14
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Gemini Ultra released by Jan 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.16
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will 'Wonka' gross over $35m over its opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.16
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 17 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
US call for Gaza ceasefire before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.16
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Kevin McCarthy resign from the House in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will another 'Forbes 30 Under 30' be arrested in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.13
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.12
|
Trades
|
Iceland volcanic eruption by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.17
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.12
|
Trades
|
OpenSea token in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.19
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
|
-0.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.12
|
Trades
|
GTA 6 release date by end of year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.21
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.20
|
Trades
|
Will NH be the first primary in 2024 Dem. nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.34
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Feb 06 2024
|
β
|
-0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.20
|
Trades
|
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.32
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-0.21
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.21
|
Trades
|
American aid to Israel by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.40
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.24
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.24
|
Trades
|
Will BTC hit $50,000 by Jan 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.47
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
-0.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.28
|
Trades
|
Ethereum all time high in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.42
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.30
|
Trades
|
More migrant encounters at border in February compared to January? |
Yes |
No |
0.42
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 01 2024
|
β
|
-0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.30
|
Trades
|
CZ sentenced to prison? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.26
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 30 2024
|
β
|
-0.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.42
|
Trades
|
Will 2024 have the hottest March on record? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.85
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 01 2024
|
β
|
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
ETH above $4,000 next Friday? |
Yes |
No |
0.78
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 15 2024
|
β
|
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
US inflation >0.4% from Feb to March 2024? |
Yes |
No |
1.82
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 12 2024
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
β
|
-1.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.10
|
Trades
|
Emmett Shear still CEO of OpenAI by end of week? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
β
|
-1.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.60
|
Trades
|
Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last 8 days? |
Yes |
No |
2.24
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7884
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 02 2023
|
β
|
-1.76
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.76
|
Trades
|
Will PVV win a plurality in the 2023 Dutch General Election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
5.93
|
0.00% |
|
0.6000
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 22 2023
|
β
|
-3.56
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.56
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.61
|
4.41
|
|
|
5.76
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
11.79
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.15
|
0.11
|
|
|
-0.96
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.70
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.76
|
4.53
|
|
|
4.79
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
11.08
|
|