Account
0xd907795ee76e6c4fceab28258f2ffdb03244e2fe Trades
| Market | Outcome 0 | Outcome 1 | Shares 0 | Shares 1 | LP Share | Avg Price 0 | Avg Price 1 | Cur Price 0 | Cur Price 1 | Value 0 | Value 1 | End Date | Resolved | Collateral | Fees Collected | Withdrawable Fees | Net | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI settlement with NYT by end of 2024? | Yes | No | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Dec 31 2024 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | Trades | |||
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 5.00 | 0.00% | 0.6600 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Dec 31 2024 | -3.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.30 | Trades | ||
| Will there be widespread flooding in LA? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Aug 23 2023 | β | 108.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 108.70 | Trades | ||
| Will more than 2.5 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before December 31? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Jan 01 2022 | β | 47.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 47.52 | Trades | ||
| Will more than 2.10 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day between Jan. 1 and Jan. 11? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 118.48 | 0.00% | 0.6185 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 118.48 | Wed Jan 12 2022 | β | -73.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 45.20 | Trades | |
| Will a single person become Time's 2021 Person of the Year? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Dec 13 2021 | β | 38.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 38.35 | Trades | ||
| Will Boris Johnson be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on May 20, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri May 20 2022 | β | 31.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 31.53 | Trades | ||
| Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be above 800,000 on February 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 81.43 | 0.00% | 0.6140 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 81.43 | Tue Feb 08 2022 | β | -50.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 31.43 | Trades | |
| Will it snow in New Yorks' Central Park on Christmas Eve (Dec 24)? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Dec 24 2021 | β | 31.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 31.11 | Trades | ||
| Will Kevin McCarthy be elected Speaker of the House in the 118th Congress? | Yes | No | 64.61 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.5417 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 64.61 | 0.00 | Wed Jan 04 2023 | β | -35.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 29.61 | Trades | |
| Will more than 2.4 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before May 31, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 25.30 | 0.00% | -0.1334 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 25.30 | Tue May 31 2022 | β | 3.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 28.68 | Trades | |
| Will Hezbollah officially join the war by Nov 30? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 20.00 | 0.00% | -0.3565 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 20.00 | Thu Nov 30 2023 | β | 7.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.13 | Trades | |
| Will Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis drop out first? | Haley | DeSantis | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 05 2024 | β | 25.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 25.60 | Trades | ||
| Will the price of wheat close above $1050 on April 29, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Apr 29 2022 | β | 24.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.96 | Trades | ||
| Will at least 50% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 50.72 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.5201 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 50.72 | 0.00 | Tue Jan 04 2022 | β | -26.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.34 | Trades | |
| Will more than 2.5 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before May 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun May 01 2022 | β | 24.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.29 | Trades | ||
| Trump mugshot by Aug 15? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Aug 15 2023 | β | 23.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 23.20 | Trades | ||
| Which party will win the 2024 United States presidential election? | Democratic | Republican | 0.00 | 50.31 | 0.00% | 0.5394 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 50.31 | Fri Nov 08 2024 | β | -27.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 23.17 | Trades | |
| Will Sweden join NATO by July 12? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Jul 12 2023 | β | 22.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 22.40 | Trades | ||
| Will Vladimir Putin say Biden 5 or more times in his upcoming interview with Tucker Carlson? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Feb 07 2024 | β | 21.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 21.60 | Trades | ||
| Will at least 80% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Jan 04 2022 | β | 20.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.95 | Trades | ||
| Temporary ceasefire for hostages deal by Nov 10? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Nov 10 2023 | β | 20.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.68 | Trades | ||
| Will the price of wheat close above $1070 on May 20, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri May 20 2022 | β | 20.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.00 | Trades | ||
| Will more than 2.25 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day between Dec. 23 and Dec. 31? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Jan 01 2022 | β | 19.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19.33 | Trades | ||
| Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $120 or more on June 9, 2022? | Yes | No | 59.97 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.6897 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 59.97 | 0.00 | Thu Jun 09 2022 | β | -41.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18.61 | Trades | |
| Will Mitch McConnell zone out again by October 1? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Oct 01 2023 | β | 17.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.59 | Trades | ||
| Will Elon and Zuck announce a fight? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Jul 01 2023 | β | 16.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.95 | Trades | ||
| Will Manchester United F.C. announce their new manager by December 2? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Dec 02 2021 | β | 16.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.27 | Trades | ||
| Will more than 2.5 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day before August? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Aug 01 2022 | β | 16.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.15 | Trades | ||
| Fed rate cut by July 31? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | Wed Jul 31 2024 | β | 15.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.58 | Trades | ||
| Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before Nov 1? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Oct 31 2023 | β | 15.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.32 | Trades | ||
| Will the USA report a 7-day COVID-19 case average of 200k or more before January 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Jan 08 2022 | β | 15.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.25 | Trades | ||
| Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be above 1,000,000 on February 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 54.17 | 0.00% | 0.7384 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 54.17 | Tue Feb 08 2022 | β | -40.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.17 | Trades | |
| Will another state court disqualify Trump from ballot by Jan 31? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 33.54 | 0.00% | 0.5873 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 33.54 | Wed Jan 31 2024 | β | -19.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.84 | Trades | |
| Will X remove likes + reposts counter in March? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Mar 31 2024 | β | 12.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.47 | Trades | ||
| White House cokehead arrested by July 15? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Jul 15 2023 | β | 10.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.83 | Trades | ||
| Who will have a higher net worth on February 20: Mark Zuckerberg or Larry Page? | Mark Zuckerberg | Larry Page | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Feb 20 2022 | β | 9.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.36 | Trades | ||
| Will the USA report a 7-day COVID-19 case average of 600k or more by January 8? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Jan 15 2022 | β | 8.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.99 | Trades | ||
| Will a barrel of crude oil close at $100 or more on May 4, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed May 04 2022 | β | 8.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.97 | Trades | ||
| Will @Snowden tweet count be over 6,700 on December 1? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Dec 01 2021 | β | 8.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.65 | Trades | ||
| Will Poland or the United Kingdom report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on Christmas Eve? | Poland | United Kingdom | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Dec 25 2021 | β | 8.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.05 | Trades | ||
| Abbas still President of Palestine by Jan 31? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 10.00 | 0.00% | -0.8000 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Jan 31 2024 | β | 8.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.00 | Trades | |
| Will Rishi Sunak be the next UK Prime Minister? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Dec 31 2023 | β | 7.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.95 | Trades | ||
| Which party will win the U.S. House in the 2022 elections? | Democratic | Republican | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 08 2022 | β | 7.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.95 | Trades | ||
| Will more than 2.4 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before June 15, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Jun 15 2022 | β | 7.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.93 | Trades | ||
| Will U.S. Supreme Court vote to reinstate Trump on Colorado's 2024 ballot? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Mar 05 2024 | β | 7.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 | Trades | ||
| Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | Wed Aug 31 2022 | β | 6.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.51 | Trades | ||
| Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 6.6% or higher on October 13? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Oct 13 2022 | β | 6.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.40 | Trades | ||
| Will more than 2.2 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by February 6? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Feb 07 2023 | β | 6.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.38 | Trades | ||
| Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be above 50,000 again by August 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Aug 08 2022 | β | 6.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.36 | Trades | ||
| Will more than 2.4 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before June 30, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Jun 30 2022 | β | 5.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.95 | Trades | ||
| Will US attack Iran by February 15? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Feb 15 2024 | β | 5.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.80 | Trades | ||
| Which country will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on February 8: Denmark or France? | Denmark | France | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Feb 08 2022 | β | 5.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.70 | Trades | ||
| Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Dec 15 2022 | β | 5.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.66 | Trades | ||
| Will U.S. 30 year Treasury bond yield close above 3% on August 19, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Aug 19 2022 | β | 5.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.65 | Trades | ||
| Will more than 2.5 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by August 31? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Aug 31 2022 | β | 5.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.45 | Trades | ||
| Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $105 or more on May 26, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu May 26 2022 | β | 5.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.40 | Trades | ||
| Will Ottawa cease to be in a state of emergency before February 22, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 25.37 | 0.00% | 0.7882 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 25.37 | Mon Feb 21 2022 | β | -20.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.37 | Trades | |
| Will at least 1% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Jan 04 2022 | β | 4.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.92 | Trades | ||
| Which cryptocurrency will perform better in December 2021: Bitcoin or Ethereum? | Bitcoin | Ethereum | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Jan 01 2022 | β | 4.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.74 | Trades | ||
| Will China report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average by May 1? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu May 05 2022 | β | 4.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.59 | Trades | ||
| Will Novak Djokovic win the 2022 Australian Open? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 19.53 | 0.00% | 0.7682 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 19.53 | Sun Jan 30 2022 | β | -15.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.53 | Trades | |
| Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Dec 31 2023 | β | 4.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.50 | Trades | ||
| Will Joe Biden file to run for president by March 31, 2023? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 10.91 | 0.00% | 0.6414 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 10.91 | Fri Mar 31 2023 | β | -7.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.91 | Trades | |
| Will there be a recession in Q2 of 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Jul 28 2022 | β | 3.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.85 | Trades | ||
| Which country will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on January 12: France, Italy, USA or Spain? | France USA Italy Spain |
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 |
0.00% |
1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 |
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 |
Fri Jan 14 2022 | β | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.75 | Trades | ||||||
| Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 13.51 | 0.00% | 0.7403 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 13.51 | Sat Dec 31 2022 | β | -10.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.51 | Trades | |
| Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 7% or higher on October 6? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Oct 06 2022 | β | 3.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.49 | Trades | ||
| Will Trump appear on Colorado primary ballot? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Mar 06 2024 | β | 3.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.45 | Trades | ||
| Will a picture surface of Kim Kardashian and Pete Davidson kissing before November 30th, 2021? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 30 2021 | β | 3.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.41 | Trades | ||
| Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $105 or more on June 30, 2022? | Yes | No | 8.36 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.5982 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 8.36 | 0.00 | Thu Jun 30 2022 | β | -5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.36 | Trades | |
| Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before 2023? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 18.28 | 0.00% | 0.8207 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 18.28 | Sat Dec 31 2022 | β | -15.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.28 | Trades | |
| Will NATO expand by June 30? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Jul 01 2023 | β | 3.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.24 | Trades | ||
| Will Germany or United Kingdom report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on November 24? | Germany | United Kingdom | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Nov 25 2021 | β | 3.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | Trades | ||
| Will Trumpβs Truth Social launch on the iOS app store by February 21st? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Feb 21 2022 | β | 3.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.04 | Trades | ||
| Will at least 10% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Jan 04 2022 | β | 2.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.72 | Trades | ||
| Will Hezbollah officially join the war in 2023? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Dec 31 2023 | β | 2.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.45 | Trades | ||
| Will President Biden mention Manchin, Sinema or filibuster in his press conference on January 19 ? | Yes | No | 7.41 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.6751 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 7.41 | 0.00 | Wed Jan 19 2022 | β | -5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.41 | Trades | |
| Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by March 15th? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Mar 15 2022 | β | 2.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.21 | Trades | ||
| Will President Biden mention Russia in his press conference on January 19? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Jan 19 2022 | β | 2.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.14 | Trades | ||
| Will more than 2.5 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by September 30? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 26.98 | 0.00% | 0.9265 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 26.98 | Fri Sep 30 2022 | β | -25.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.98 | Trades | |
| Will Nancy Pelosi be elected Speaker of the House for the 118th Congress? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Jan 03 2023 | β | 1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.96 | Trades | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce he is running for president by November 15? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 15 2022 | β | 1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.86 | Trades | ||
| Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by October 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 11.50 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.8693 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 11.50 | 0.00 | Sat Oct 01 2022 | β | -10.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | Trades | |
| Will George Santos remain in Congress through March 31? | Yes | No | 6.18 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.8089 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 6.18 | 0.00 | Fri Mar 31 2023 | β | -5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.18 | Trades | |
| Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Sep 10 2024 | β | 1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.15 | Trades | ||
| Will Russia remain in G20 through November 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 01 2022 | β | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.09 | Trades | ||
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 15.00 | 0.00% | 0.9300 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 15.00 | Fri Jun 30 2023 | β | -13.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.05 | Trades | |
| Senate: Will an Independent (McMullin) or Republican (Lee) win in Utah? | Independent | Republican | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 08 2022 | β | 1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 | Trades | ||
| Will at least 90% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Jan 04 2022 | β | 1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 | Trades | ||
| Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | Thu Aug 22 2024 | β | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 | Trades | ||
| Governor: Will a Democrat (Christ) or Republican (DeSantis) win in Florida? | Democrat | Republican | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 08 2022 | β | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 | Trades | ||
| Will Novak Djokovic advance to semifinals in the 2022 Australian Open? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Jan 28 2022 | β | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 | Trades | ||
| Will Ukraine be a member state of the European Union by July 31, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 20.90 | 0.00% | 0.9567 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 20.90 | Sun Jul 31 2022 | β | -20.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 | Trades | |
| Will Mitch McConnell still be a Senator on August 4? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Aug 04 2023 | β | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 | Trades | ||
| Will Germany or Poland report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on November 18? | Germany | Poland | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Nov 19 2021 | β | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 | Trades | ||
| Will Peter Thiel win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Sep 10 2024 | β | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 | Trades | ||
| Will $UST be above $0.99 on May 17, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue May 17 2022 | β | 0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 | Trades | ||
| Will Tim Scott win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 25.00 | 0.00% | 0.9700 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 25.00 | Tue Sep 10 2024 | β | -24.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | Trades | |
| NFL: Will the Dolphins beat the Saints by more than 1.5 points in their December 27 matchup? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Dec 27 2021 | β | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | Trades | ||
| Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 25.67 | 0.00% | 0.9739 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 25.67 | Fri Jul 01 2022 | β | -25.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | Trades | |
| Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 1, 2023? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Mar 01 2023 | β | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 | Trades | ||
| Was Sam Altman fired for sexually abusing his sister? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 5.62 | 0.00% | 0.8900 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 5.62 | Thu Nov 30 2023 | β | -5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 | Trades | |
| Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on November 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 25.62 | 0.00% | 0.9759 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 25.62 | Tue Nov 01 2022 | β | -25.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 | Trades | |
| Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average on January 8th be higher than it was a week earlier? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Jan 15 2022 | β | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | Trades | ||
| Will Tucker Carlson win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | Tue Sep 10 2024 | β | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | Trades | ||
| Will Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | Sun Dec 31 2023 | β | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 | Trades | ||
| Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $110 or more on June 3, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Jun 03 2022 | β | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 | Trades | ||
| Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on October 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Oct 01 2022 | β | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 | Trades | ||
| Will Credit Suisse announce they are filing for bankruptcy before 2023? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 10.54 | 0.00% | 0.9490 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 10.54 | Sat Dec 31 2022 | β | -10.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 | Trades | |
| Will Eric Zemmour win the 2022 French presidential election? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Apr 25 2022 | β | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | Trades | ||
| Will MrBeast's Squid Game video reach 60M views in its first week? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Dec 01 2021 | β | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 | Trades | ||
| Will there be a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine by Dec 31? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 10.46 | 0.00% | 0.9559 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 10.46 | Sat Dec 31 2022 | β | -10.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 | Trades | |
| Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $110 or more on July 11, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Jul 11 2022 | β | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 | Trades | ||
| Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by April 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Apr 01 2022 | β | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 | Trades | ||
| The Thiel Parlay | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 08 2022 | β | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 | Trades | ||
| Will the AAA US average national gas price drop below $4.00 by June 30, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Jun 30 2022 | β | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 | Trades | ||
| Will another flying object be downed by the U.S. on February 18? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Feb 17 2023 | β | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 | Trades | ||
| Egypt accept >1k Gazan refugees by Nov 15? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Nov 15 2023 | β | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 | Trades | ||
| Will Sergei Shoigu remain Minister of Defense of Russia through July 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Jul 31 2022 | β | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 | Trades | ||
| Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan before September 2022? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | Thu Sep 01 2022 | β | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 | Trades | ||
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Aug 10 2024 | β | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 | Trades | ||
| Will Tadej PogaΔar win the 2022 Tour de France? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 5.18 | 0.00% | 0.9656 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 5.18 | Sun Jul 24 2022 | β | -5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 | Trades | |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in November? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Nov 30 2023 | β | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 | Trades | ||
| Will Trump smile in his mugshot? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Apr 30 2023 | β | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | Trades | ||
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Sunday? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Oct 22 2023 | β | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | Trades | ||
| Will USD overtake EUR again by August 1? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Aug 01 2022 | β | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | Trades | ||
| Formula 1: Who will finish ahead at the 2022 Australian Grand Prix: Max Verstappen or Charles Leclerc? | Max Verstappen | Charles Leclerc | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Apr 10 2022 | β | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | Trades | ||
| Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.012 by June 12? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Jun 12 2022 | β | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.07 | Trades | ||
| Who will have a higher net worth on February 20: Bernard Arnault or Jeff Bezos? | Bernard Arnault | Jeff Bezos | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Feb 20 2022 | β | -0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.08 | Trades | ||
| Will Iran officially join the war in 2023? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Dec 31 2023 | β | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.10 | Trades | ||
| Will Iga Swiatek win the 2022 French Open (Roland-Garros) Women's Singles? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Jun 05 2022 | β | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.10 | Trades | ||
| Will Novak Djokovic win the 2022 French Open (Roland-Garros) Men's Singles? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Jun 05 2022 | β | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.15 | Trades | ||
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2022 French Open (Roland-Garros) Men's Singles? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | Sun Jun 05 2022 | β | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.15 | Trades | ||
| Will Ukraine formally cede Crimea, Luhansk, or Donetsk by May 31, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue May 31 2022 | β | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.15 | Trades | ||
| Will Rafael Nadal win the 2022 French Open (Roland-Garros) Men's Singles? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Jun 05 2022 | β | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.15 | Trades | ||
| Will The Sandbox or Decentraland have a higher floor price on April 1st, 2022? | Sandbox | Decentraland | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Apr 01 2022 | β | -0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.18 | Trades | ||
| Will natural gas close above $9 on June 10, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Jun 10 2022 | β | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.20 | Trades | ||
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the β21-β22 Superbowl? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Feb 13 2022 | β | -0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.22 | Trades | ||
| Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat May 14 2022 | β | -0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.22 | Trades | ||
| Will Biden visit Hawaii by Friday? | Yes | No | 25.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.0090 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Aug 18 2023 | β | -0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.23 | Trades | |
| Premier League: Who will win the Man City vs. Liverpool game on April 10? | Man City | Liverpool | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Apr 10 2022 | β | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.26 | Trades | ||
| Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023? | Yes | No | 6.19 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.0441 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Dec 31 2022 | β | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.27 | Trades | |
| Will Tom Brady play in Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Sep 22 2022 | β | -0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.29 | Trades | ||
| Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Sep 10 2024 | β | -0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.30 | Trades | ||
| Will Erling Haaland break the Premier League goals record in the 22/23 season? (34 goals) | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun May 28 2023 | β | -0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.48 | Trades | ||
| Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through 2022? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | Sat Dec 31 2022 | β | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.49 | Trades | ||
| Will Messi win Ballon d'Or? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Oct 30 2023 | β | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.50 | Trades | ||
| Will Taylor Swiftβs re-recording of her album βRedβ beat Kanye's "Donda" in first week streams? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Nov 01 2021 | β | -0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.52 | Trades | ||
| Will Donald Trump file to run for president before 2023? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Dec 31 2022 | β | -0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.74 | Trades | ||
| Will Israel invade Lebanon before March? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Feb 29 2024 | β | -0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.75 | Trades | ||
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the β21-β22 Superbowl? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Feb 13 2022 | β | -0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.75 | Trades | ||
| Will total value locked in DeFi be $105 billion or higher on December 7th? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Dec 07 2021 | β | -0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.79 | Trades | ||
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before March? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Feb 29 2024 | β | -0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.80 | Trades | ||
| Will Bitcoin ($BTC) hit $20,000 or less by June 30? | Yes | No | 10.13 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.0839 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 10.13 | 0.00 | Thu Jun 30 2022 | β | -10.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.85 | Trades | |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2023? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Dec 31 2023 | β | -1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 | Trades | ||
| Will Blake Masters win the 2022 Arizona Republican Senate nomination? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | Tue Aug 02 2022 | β | -1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.01 | Trades | ||
| Will Emmanuel Macron win the 2022 French presidential election? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Apr 25 2022 | β | -1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.03 | Trades | ||
| Will Iran or Pakistan declare war against the other in January? | Yes | No | 99.17 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.0109 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Jan 31 2024 | β | -1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.08 | Trades | |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican vice presidential nomination? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Sep 09 2024 | β | -1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.25 | Trades | ||
| Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Jan 01 2023 | β | -1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.28 | Trades | ||
| Will natural gas close above $8 on May 20, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri May 20 2022 | β | -1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.29 | Trades | ||
| Will Novak Djokovic compete in the 2022 Australian Open? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Jan 26 2022 | β | -1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.52 | Trades | ||
| Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Aug 10 2024 | β | -1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.55 | Trades | ||
| Will the AAA US average national gas price drop below $4.00 by April 25, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Apr 25 2022 | β | -1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.58 | Trades | ||
| Will a picture surface of Kim Kardashian and Pete Davidson kissing before December 8th, 2021? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Dec 07 2021 | β | -1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.63 | Trades | ||
| Will natural gas close above $6 on July 11, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Jul 11 2022 | β | -1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.66 | Trades | ||
| NFL: Will the Seahawks beat the Bears by more than 6.5 points in their December 26 matchup? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Dec 26 2021 | β | -1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.87 | Trades | ||
| Will the Pound dip below the US Dollar before November? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Oct 31 2022 | β | -1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.96 | Trades | ||
| Will Javier Milei win by more than 5% in the 2023 Argentina Presidential election? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Nov 18 2023 | β | -1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.98 | Trades | ||
| Will US attack Iran by Nov 30? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Nov 30 2023 | β | -2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.00 | Trades | ||
| Trump and Biden both win nomination? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | Tue Sep 10 2024 | β | -2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.10 | Trades | ||
| Will there be 3 or more goals in USA v. Jamaica soccer game on November 16? | Yes | No | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 16 2021 | β | -2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.10 | Trades | ||
| Will Hellbound be the #1 Netflix show worldwide on Week 49, 2021 (Nov 29 - Dec 5)? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Dec 06 2021 | β | -2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.25 | Trades | ||
| Will more than 2.4 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before May 24, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue May 24 2022 | β | -2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.29 | Trades | ||
| Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the β21-β22 Superbowl? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Feb 13 2022 | β | -2.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.58 | Trades | ||
| Who will have a higher net worth on February 20: Warren Buffett or Sergey Brin? | Warren Buffett | Sergey Brin | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Feb 20 2022 | β | -2.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.75 | Trades | ||
| Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $100 or more on July 22, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 10.39 | 0.00% | 1.2726 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 10.39 | Fri Jul 22 2022 | β | -13.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.83 | Trades | |
| Will President Biden mention "reset" in his press conference on January 19 ? | Yes | No | 8.68 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.3455 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Jan 19 2022 | β | -3.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.00 | Trades | |
| Will Shoigu still be Russian Minister of Defense on July 1? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Jul 01 2023 | β | -3.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.00 | Trades | ||
| Will France or the USA report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on November 30? | France | USA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Dec 01 2021 | β | -3.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.33 | Trades | ||
| Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2023? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Dec 31 2023 | β | -3.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.55 | Trades | ||
| Will Boris Johnson be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on January 20, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Jan 20 2022 | β | -3.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.60 | Trades | ||
| Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 25.00 | 0.00% | 0.1470 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Nov 01 2023 | β | -3.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.67 | Trades | |
| Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Yes | No | 20.15 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.1985 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | β | -4.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -4.00 | Trades | ||
| Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by March 15, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Mar 15 2022 | β | -4.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -4.01 | Trades | ||
| Will at least 99% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Jan 04 2022 | β | -4.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -4.22 | Trades | ||
| Senate: Will a Democrat (Warnock) or Republican (Walker) win in Georgia? | Democrat | Republican | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 15 2022 | β | -4.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -4.46 | Trades | ||
| Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $100 or more on August 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Aug 01 2022 | β | -4.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -4.54 | Trades | ||
| Will Dianne Feinstein resign by July 1? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Jul 01 2023 | β | -4.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -4.60 | Trades | ||
| Will Mario Draghi be elected as President of Italy in the upcoming 2022 Presidential Election? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Jan 25 2022 | β | -4.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -4.66 | Trades | ||
| Will a vaccine targeting the Omicron variant be available in the US before April 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Apr 01 2022 | β | -4.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -4.95 | Trades | ||
| Will the Moscow Stock Exchange market (MOEX) open for trading by March 25, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 13.28 | 0.00% | 0.3764 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Mar 25 2022 | β | -5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -5.00 | Trades | |
| Will Andy Warhol's Self Portrait sell for more than $16 million at Sotheby's? | Yes | No | 9.90 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.5050 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon May 16 2022 | β | -5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -5.00 | Trades | |
| Will the Gorgosaurus skeleton sell for more than $6 million at Sotheby's? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Jul 28 2022 | β | -5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -5.00 | Trades | ||
| Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $650 million domestically by January 31, 2023? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Jan 31 2023 | β | -5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -5.00 | Trades | ||
| Will Valerie Pecresse win the 2022 French presidential election? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Apr 25 2022 | β | -5.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -5.97 | Trades | ||
| Superconductor "Yes" trading between 15Β’ and 65Β’ EOW? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 125.00 | 0.00% | 0.0480 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Aug 06 2023 | β | -6.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -6.00 | Trades | |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Sep 10 2024 | β | -6.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -6.28 | Trades | ||
| Will NATO expand in 2022? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Jan 01 2023 | β | -6.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -6.61 | Trades | ||
| Will year-to-year inflation in the European Union be 5.2% or more in November? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Dec 17 2021 | β | -6.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -6.86 | Trades | ||
| Will ErdoΔan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun May 14 2023 | β | -8.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -8.70 | Trades | ||
| Will there be more than 10,000 Monkeypox cases in the USA by August 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Mon Aug 01 2022 | β | -8.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -8.95 | Trades | ||
| Fed rate cut by March 20? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Mar 20 2024 | β | -9.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -9.00 | Trades | ||
| Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Feb 24 2024 | β | -9.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -9.60 | Trades | ||
| Will Brittney Griner return to the U.S. by December 31? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Dec 31 2022 | β | -9.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -9.99 | Trades | ||
| Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by December 31, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sat Dec 31 2022 | β | -10.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -10.27 | Trades | ||
| Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Oct 15? | Yes | No | 14.67 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.8500 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Oct 15 2023 | β | -12.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -12.47 | Trades | |
| Who will be Time's 2021 Person of the Year? | Healthcare Workers WHO Joe Biden Anthony Fauci Other |
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 |
0.00% |
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 |
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 |
Mon Dec 13 2021 | β | -12.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -12.69 | Trades | ||||||
| Senate: Will a Democrat (Kelly) or Republican (Masters) win in Arizona? | Democrat | Republican | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 15 2022 | β | -12.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -12.80 | Trades | ||
| Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Democratic | Republican | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 08 2022 | β | -13.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -13.34 | Trades | ||
| SBF jail by August 31? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Aug 31 2023 | β | -13.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -13.35 | Trades | ||
| Will Twitter report any outages by January 6, 2023? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 15.00 | 0.00% | 0.9400 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Jan 06 2023 | β | -14.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -14.10 | Trades | |
| Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 15.00 | 0.00% | 0.9580 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Dec 31 2023 | β | -14.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -14.37 | Trades | |
| Fed rate cut by June 12? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 35.71 | 0.00% | 0.4200 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Jun 12 2024 | β | -15.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -15.00 | Trades | |
| Will natural gas close above $6 on June 30, 2022? | Yes | No | 24.34 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.6163 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Thu Jun 30 2022 | β | -15.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -15.00 | Trades | |
| Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack? | Yes | No | 50.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.3000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Dec 31 2023 | β | -15.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -15.00 | Trades | |
| Will Iran officially join the war before February? | Yes | No | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Wed Jan 31 2024 | β | -17.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -17.61 | Trades | ||
| Will Nikki Haley drop out before Super Tuesday? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Mar 05 2024 | β | -18.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -18.90 | Trades | ||
| Will Amber Heard be found liable for defaming Johnny Depp? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 82.97 | 0.00% | 0.2318 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Jan 01 2023 | β | -19.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -19.23 | Trades | |
| Will Credit Suisse fail by March 31? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 52.73 | 0.00% | 0.3945 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fri Mar 31 2023 | β | -20.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -20.80 | Trades | |
| Will 100 million Americans have received at least one 'booster shot' of the COVID-19 vaccine by May 1? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun May 01 2022 | β | -29.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -29.43 | Trades | ||
| Will Boris Johnson be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on March 20, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Sun Mar 20 2022 | β | -31.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -31.72 | Trades | ||
| Will at least 95% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Jan 04 2022 | β | -33.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -33.96 | Trades | ||
| Will Trump and Biden debate before presidential election? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 110.00 | 0.00% | 0.5711 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 05 2024 | β | -62.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -62.82 | Trades | |
| Will Biden drop out of presidential race? | Yes | No | 0.00 | 100.00 | 0.00% | 0.7855 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Tue Nov 05 2024 | β | -78.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -78.55 | Trades | |
| Resolved | 218.91 | 652.24 | -399.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 471.21 | ||||||||||||
| Unresolved | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.30 | ||||||||||||
| Total | 218.91 | 652.24 | -401.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 469.91 | ||||||||||||