Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.93 |
0.07 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
0.06
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.07
|
Trades
|
Another Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
10.87
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.87
|
Trades
|
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 13 2024
|
✅ |
8.89
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8.89
|
Trades
|
Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
7.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.82
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.02
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
1.79
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0376
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
✅ |
-0.07
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.07
|
Trades
|
Sam Altman back on OpenAI board by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.28
|
Trades
|
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.15
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.15
|
Trades
|
Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack? |
Yes |
No |
2.97
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6740
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Will AI be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
7.14
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4200
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 14 2024
|
✅ |
-3.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.00
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in South Gaza by Dec 8? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
7.35
|
0.00% |
|
0.6800
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 08 2023
|
✅ |
-5.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-5.00
|
Trades
|
US Congress approve more Ukraine aid in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
9.43
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-5.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-5.00
|
Trades
|
Hamas lose power in Gaza before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
12.82
|
0.00% |
|
0.7800
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last 8 days? |
Yes |
No |
12.35
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.8100
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 02 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
-8.93
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-8.93
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.01
|
0.00
|
|
|
0.06
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.07
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.01
|
0.00
|
|
|
-8.87
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-8.86
|
|