Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
13,303.73
|
0.00% |
|
0.6317
|
0.93 |
0.07 |
0.00
|
956.51
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-8,403.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7,446.98
|
Trades
|
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1,111.11
|
0.00% |
|
0.9000
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-1,000.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1,000.00
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
199.86
|
0.00% |
|
0.7505
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-150.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-150.00
|
Trades
|
Will Barbenheimer overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 16 2023
|
✅ |
-139.65
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-139.65
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
109.89
|
0.00% |
|
0.9100
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-100.00
|
Trades
|
Will Biden drop out of presidential race? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
121.21
|
0.00% |
|
0.7300
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
|
-88.48
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-88.48
|
Trades
|
Will Javier Milei win by more than 5% in the 2023 Argentina Presidential election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
68.49
|
0.00% |
|
0.7300
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Nov 18 2023
|
✅ |
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
World Cup 2022: Monday - Will Netherlands beat Senegal? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 21 2022
|
✅ |
-39.98
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-39.98
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-35.39
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-35.39
|
Trades
|
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher) |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
39.63
|
0.00% |
|
0.7848
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-31.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-31.10
|
Trades
|
Will there be 19 or more named storms during the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
40.54
|
0.00% |
|
0.7400
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 01 2023
|
✅ |
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
Which party will win the 2024 United States presidential election? |
Democratic |
Republican |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.46 |
0.54 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Fri Nov 08 2024
|
|
-29.48
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-29.47
|
Trades
|
World Cup 2022: Monday - Will England beat Iran? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
76.26
|
0.00% |
|
0.2819
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 21 2022
|
✅ |
-21.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-21.50
|
Trades
|
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-13.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-13.39
|
Trades
|
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Hou Yu-ih win? |
Yes |
No |
67.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1493
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 13 2024
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
USD/TRY (Turkish Lira) above 21 on June 9? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
40.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.2500
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 09 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
43.48
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Halloween? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
11.63
|
0.00% |
|
0.8600
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 22 2023
|
✅ |
-9.76
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-9.76
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by October 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
-9.67
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-9.67
|
Trades
|
Will the 2022 World Cup winner be from South America? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 18 2022
|
✅ |
-7.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7.49
|
Trades
|
Will Shoigu still be Russian Minister of Defense on July 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
26.32
|
0.00% |
|
0.1900
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jul 01 2023
|
✅ |
-5.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-5.00
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by October 2? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Mon Oct 02 2023
|
✅ |
-3.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.79
|
Trades
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
107.53
|
0.00% |
|
0.9300
|
0.06 |
0.94 |
0.00
|
101.41
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.41
|
Trades
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
107.53
|
0.00% |
|
0.9300
|
0.05 |
0.95 |
0.00
|
102.66
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.66
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
55.54
|
0.00% |
|
0.9003
|
0.04 |
0.96 |
0.00
|
53.22
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.22
|
Trades
|
US Congress approve more Ukraine aid in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
24.69
|
0.00% |
|
0.8100
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
24.69
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.69
|
Trades
|
Will Magnus play Hans by EoY? |
Yes |
No |
25.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
-0.2500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
6.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.25
|
Trades
|
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2023? |
Yes |
No |
107.53
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9300
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
107.53
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.53
|
Trades
|
US inflation >0% from Oct to Nov 2023? |
Yes |
No |
18.52
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5400
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
18.52
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 12 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8.52
|
Trades
|
Will Netanyahu still be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
108.70
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9200
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
108.70
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8.70
|
Trades
|
Will Twitter announce bankruptcy in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
108.70
|
0.00% |
|
0.9200
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
108.70
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8.70
|
Trades
|
Will Gavin Newsom win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
116.28
|
0.00% |
|
0.8600
|
0.06 |
0.94 |
0.00
|
109.28
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
9.28
|
Trades
|
Military intervention in Niger by September 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 15 2023
|
✅ |
12.99
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.99
|
Trades
|
Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
116.28
|
0.00% |
|
0.8600
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
116.28
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
16.28
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
135.14
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7400
|
|
0.87 |
0.13 |
118.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
18.00
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
✅ |
20.48
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
20.48
|
Trades
|
Will Trump's 538 favorability rating be 37.4% or higher on April 14? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Apr 14 2023
|
✅ |
22.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
22.50
|
Trades
|
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 21 2023
|
✅ |
23.90
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
23.90
|
Trades
|
Will a candidate say something racist at the next Republican debate? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Oct 04 2023
|
✅ |
26.77
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
26.77
|
Trades
|
Will the WGA strike end by September 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Sep 30 2023
|
✅ |
27.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
27.00
|
Trades
|
ETH above $1,700 on Sep 8? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 08 2023
|
✅ |
29.38
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
29.38
|
Trades
|
2023 FIDE World Cup: Will Magnus Carlsen win top 3? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Aug 23 2023
|
✅ |
30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
30.00
|
Trades
|
2023 FIDE World Cup: Will Fabiano Caruana win top 3? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Aug 23 2023
|
✅ |
32.63
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
32.63
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise rates again in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
143.59
|
0.00% |
|
0.7661
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
143.59
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-110.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
33.59
|
Trades
|
Will Tiktok be banned in the US by May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
✅ |
34.98
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
34.98
|
Trades
|
Will $BTC hit $32,000 by Aug 4? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Aug 04 2023
|
✅ |
63.47
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
63.47
|
Trades
|
Will ChatGPT remain free through April 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
✅ |
63.64
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
63.64
|
Trades
|
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
398.63
|
0.00% |
|
0.7526
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
398.63
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-300.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
98.63
|
Trades
|
Will $BTC reach $30,000 by April 7? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Apr 07 2023
|
✅ |
102.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
102.00
|
Trades
|
2023 FIDE WCC: Ian Nepomniachtchi vs. Ding Liren |
Nepomniachtchi |
Liren |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
✅ |
107.65
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
107.65
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by August 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 31 2023
|
✅ |
115.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
115.05
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
✅ |
119.78
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
119.78
|
Trades
|
Will Elon and Zuck announce a fight? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jul 01 2023
|
✅ |
129.89
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
129.89
|
Trades
|
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 13 2024
|
✅ |
131.35
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
131.35
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
234.74
|
791.90
|
|
|
-427.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
599.61
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
118.00
|
1,323.08
|
|
|
-9,971.45
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-8,530.36
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
352.75
|
2,114.97
|
|
|
-10,398.48
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7,930.76
|
|