Which party will win the 2024 United States presidential election? |
Democratic |
Republican |
0.00
|
2.17
|
0.00% |
|
0.4600
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00
|
1.08
|
Fri Nov 08 2024
|
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
Trades
|
Will Circle IPO by June? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.52
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00
|
0.26
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Blast airdrop by May? |
Yes |
No |
0.35
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.69 |
0.31 |
0.24
|
0.00
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
|
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
3.57
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0700
|
|
0.06 |
0.94 |
0.20
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.05
|
Trades
|
Will ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
No |
0.40
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Trump jail before election day? |
Yes |
No |
1.25
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0800
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Republican VP nominee be a woman? |
Yes |
No |
0.78
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.39
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.11
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
1.32
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1900
|
|
0.04 |
0.96 |
0.05
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.20
|
Trades
|
OpenSea token >1 billion a week after launch? |
Yes |
No |
0.38
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican vice presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
1.39
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1800
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Sep 09 2024
|
|
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August? |
Yes |
No |
1.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1500
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 01 2024
|
|
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
OpenSea token in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.58
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
|
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Netanyahu out by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.64
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
OpenAI settlement with NYT by end of 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.83
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican vice presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
1.25
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2000
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Sep 09 2024
|
|
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Trump and Biden both win nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.78
|
0.00% |
|
0.3600
|
0.79 |
0.21 |
0.00
|
0.57
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.43
|
Trades
|
Will Kraken IPO by June? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.59
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? |
Yes |
No |
4.17
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1200
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3.45
|
0.00% |
|
0.2900
|
0.87 |
0.13 |
0.00
|
0.44
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.56
|
Trades
|
Trump and Biden both lose nomination? |
Yes |
No |
14.29
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0700
|
|
0.03 |
0.97 |
0.42
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.58
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4.55
|
0.00% |
|
0.2200
|
0.93 |
0.07 |
0.00
|
0.33
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.67
|
Trades
|
Will Biden drop out of presidential race? |
Yes |
No |
3.45
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2900
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
14.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
14.40
|
Trades
|
Will anyone say "alien" in the 3rd RNC primary debate? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 07 2023
|
✅ |
3.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.04
|
Trades
|
Will "terrorist" be said 10 or more times in the 3rd RNC primary debate? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 07 2023
|
✅ |
2.59
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.60
|
Trades
|
Will "Ukraine" be said 10 or more times in the 3rd RNC primary debate? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 07 2023
|
✅ |
1.98
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.98
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
2.23
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1483
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
2.23
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.90
|
Trades
|
Hamas lose power in Gaza before February? |
Yes |
No |
1.79
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1400
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.79
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.54
|
Trades
|
Will WeWork announce bankruptcy by November 12? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 12 2023
|
✅ |
1.15
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.15
|
Trades
|
Will Trump win every state in Republican Nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.61
|
0.00% |
|
0.3100
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.61
|
Tue Jun 25 2024
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.11
|
Trades
|
Mississippi gubernatorial election: Presley (D) vs. Reeves (R) |
Presley |
Reeves |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 07 2023
|
✅ |
1.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.08
|
Trades
|
Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.22
|
0.00% |
|
0.1473
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.22
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.18
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.04
|
Trades
|
Will Apple announce M3 Chip at its "Scary Fast" event? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 30 2023
|
✅ |
1.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.03
|
Trades
|
Alien contact in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
1.02
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.02
|
Trades
|
Cricket World Cup: India vs. Australia |
India |
Australia |
0.00
|
1.52
|
0.00% |
|
0.3300
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.52
|
Sun Nov 19 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.02
|
Trades
|
Will ETH hit $2,000 by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.91
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.92
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Marvels' gross more than $55 million domestically on its opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.00
|
Sun Nov 12 2023
|
✅ |
-0.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.85
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' gross over $50m opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 20 2023
|
✅ |
0.85
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.85
|
Trades
|
Will Google announce 1000+ new layoffs before February? |
Yes |
No |
1.09
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2300
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.09
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.84
|
Trades
|
Will another 'Forbes 30 Under 30' be arrested in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.83
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.83
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.73
|
Trades
|
Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last 8 days? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.93
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.93
|
Sat Dec 02 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.68
|
Trades
|
Will Israel announce 24h+ humanitarian pause by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
1.16
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4300
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.16
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.66
|
Trades
|
Will the Epstein documents name Donald Trump? |
Yes |
No |
0.83
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.83
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.58
|
Trades
|
SBF sentenced to 50+ years? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.43
|
0.00% |
|
0.5999
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.43
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
✅ |
-0.86
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.57
|
Trades
|
Will ‘The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes’ have a bigger opening weekend than 'The Marvels'? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.54
|
0.00% |
|
0.6500
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.54
|
Mon Nov 20 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.54
|
Trades
|
Will "Hamas" be said 15 or more times in the 3rd RNC primary debate? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 07 2023
|
✅ |
0.51
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.52
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.51
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.51
|
Trades
|
Community notes on Biden Xeet by December 11? |
Yes |
No |
0.76
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.76
|
0.00
|
Mon Dec 11 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.51
|
Trades
|
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win? |
Yes |
No |
1.49
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6700
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.49
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 13 2024
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.49
|
Trades
|
Emmett Shear still CEO of OpenAI by end of week? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.71
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.71
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.46
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in South Gaza by Dec 8? |
Yes |
No |
0.69
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.69
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 08 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.44
|
Trades
|
Fuel shipments to Gaza by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
1.39
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7200
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.39
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.39
|
Trades
|
Bitcoin all time high by Mar 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.48
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.48
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.38
|
Trades
|
Will Logan Paul refund CryptoZoo investors by Jan 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
0.29
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.29
|
Trades
|
Will "Biden" be said by every candidate in the 3rd RNC primary debate? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 07 2023
|
✅ |
0.27
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.28
|
Trades
|
GTA 6 trailer released by Dec 7? |
Yes |
No |
0.77
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.77
|
0.00
|
Thu Dec 07 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.27
|
Trades
|
Will China invade Taiwan in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.25
|
Trades
|
Will Saudi Arabia accept invitation to join BRICS? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jan 01 2024
|
✅ |
0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.25
|
Trades
|
Will X unban Alex Jones in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.33
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.23
|
Trades
|
Another Israel x Hamas ceasefire before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.33
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.33
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.23
|
Trades
|
Will NSC win a plurality in the 2023 Dutch General Election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.72
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.72
|
Wed Nov 22 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.22
|
Trades
|
Will Israel start flooding Hamas tunnels by December 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.42
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.42
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 15 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.17
|
Trades
|
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.17
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.17
|
Trades
|
US military intervention by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.16
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by May 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.26
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.26
|
Wed May 01 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.16
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Marvels' gross more than $65 million domestically on its opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.15
|
0.00% |
|
0.8700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.15
|
Sun Nov 12 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.15
|
Trades
|
Will 'Tears of the Kingdom' win Game of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.12
|
0.00% |
|
0.8900
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.12
|
Thu Dec 07 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.12
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.13 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.91
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.11
|
Trades
|
Aleo airdrop by April? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.35
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.35
|
Tue Apr 30 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.10
|
Trades
|
Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.10
|
0.00% |
|
0.9100
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.10
|
Wed Nov 15 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Linda Yaccarino remain CEO of X through 2023? |
Yes |
No |
1.10
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9100
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.10
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.10
|
Trades
|
Will MrBeast hit 250 Million subscribers by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.09
|
0.00% |
|
0.9200
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.09
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.09
|
Trades
|
Will Cruise relaunch driverless taxis in SF by EoY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.08
|
0.00% |
|
0.9300
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.08
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
Trades
|
Will the KyberSwap hacker return 50% of the exploited funds by Dec 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.32
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.32
|
Fri Dec 15 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.07
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Sunday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 22 2023
|
✅ |
0.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.05
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Marvels' gross more than $75 million domestically on its opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.05
|
0.00% |
|
0.9500
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.05
|
Sun Nov 12 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.05
|
Trades
|
Over 500 OpenAI resignations this week? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.54
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.54
|
Fri Nov 24 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.04
|
Trades
|
Celestia token above $5 one week after airdrop? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.04
|
0.00% |
|
0.9600
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.04
|
Mon Nov 06 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.04
|
Trades
|
Will Ben Armstrong regain control of BitBoy Crypto by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.29
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.29
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.04
|
Trades
|
Will Elon Musk visit Gaza in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.54
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.54
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.04
|
Trades
|
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.03
|
0.00% |
|
0.9680
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.03
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.03
|
Trades
|
Will Pope Francis remain Pope through 2023? |
Yes |
No |
1.03
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9700
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.03
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.03
|
Trades
|
Binance insolvent in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.03
|
0.00% |
|
0.9700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.03
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.03
|
Trades
|
SBF sentenced to life? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.03
|
0.00% |
|
0.9700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.03
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.03
|
Trades
|
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.03
|
0.00% |
|
0.9700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.03
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.03
|
Trades
|
Will Zelensky visit Israel by Nov 10? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.88
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.88
|
Fri Nov 10 2023
|
✅ |
-0.85
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.03
|
Trades
|
Will OpenAI be for-profit by March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.53
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.53
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.03
|
Trades
|
'Dune 2' bigger opening weekend than 'Dune'? |
Yes |
No |
0.27
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.27
|
0.00
|
Mon Mar 04 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.02
|
Trades
|
LayerZero airdrop by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.02
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.02
|
Trades
|
Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Huobi Insolvent in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.01
|
0.00% |
|
0.9900
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.01
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Marvels' flop? |
Yes |
No |
1.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9900
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.01
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Will Trump be Speaker by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.01
|
0.00% |
|
0.9910
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1.01
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Tiktok banned in the US in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.83
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.05
|
Trades
|
Was Sam Altman fired for sexually abusing his sister? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the Epstein documents name Elon Musk? |
Yes |
No |
0.15
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
North Korea nuke by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
1.43
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0700
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.08 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.94
|
0.00% |
|
0.0340
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.05 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3.33
|
0.00% |
|
0.0300
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.11 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.67
|
0.00% |
|
0.0600
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.15 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.33
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Netanyahu still be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.43
|
0.00% |
|
0.0700
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Mahmoud Abbas still be President of the State of Palestine by the end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.45
|
0.00% |
|
0.0690
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Hezbollah officially join the war by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
1.43
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0700
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Hamas release 20+ hostages in a single day by Nov 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.91
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 15 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the Poloniex hacker return the stolen funds by Nov 17? |
Yes |
No |
1.96
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0510
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 17 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Eric Adams resign by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
5.26
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0190
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Another House member censured by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
3.45
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0290
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH hit $1,800 or $2,200 first? |
$1800 |
$2200 |
1.11
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0900
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jul 01 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will PvdA-GL win a plurality in the 2023 Dutch General Election? |
Yes |
No |
0.59
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 22 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Sam Altman join Grok by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
6.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0150
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Sam Altman announces new company by Nov 24? |
Yes |
No |
3.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 24 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Sam Altman sue OpenAI? |
Yes |
No |
1.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the Blast bridge be exploited by end of February? |
Yes |
No |
0.83
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Feb 28 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Josh Giddey's contract be terminated? |
Yes |
No |
1.11
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0900
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Dec 07 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Mark Cuban to announce presidential run by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
2.70
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0370
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Venezuela invade Guyana in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
1.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Milady flip MAYC by March 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.56
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 01 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will OpenSea announce bankruptcy by March 1? |
Yes |
No |
1.45
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0690
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 01 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
OpenSea token by May 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.34
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 01 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the GTA 6 trailer get >600m views on day 1? |
Yes |
No |
1.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 12 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency for Chinese pneumonia outbreak in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.91
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
US travel ban for China in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
3.45
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0290
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will any of the college presidents who testified on antisemitism leave by end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.33
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Google have the best LLM before 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Zelensky remain President of Ukraine through March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.43
|
0.00% |
|
0.0700
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Devin Haney vs. Regis Prograis |
Haney |
Progrias |
0.00
|
0.43
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 09 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Hamas surrender before February? |
Yes |
No |
2.63
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0380
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
UK election called by end of year? |
Yes |
No |
0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Confederate Memorial at Arlington Cemetery removed by Jan 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.45
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jan 01 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Trump >50% chance of winning nomination after Super Tuesday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.83
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 06 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Color Purple' gross over $20m on Christmas Day? |
Yes |
No |
0.22
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 26 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
SOL/ETH new high by Jan 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.36
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Iran officially join the war before February? |
Yes |
No |
3.70
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0270
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the Epstein documents name Jimmy Kimmel? |
Yes |
No |
3.45
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0290
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel in January? |
Yes |
No |
1.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Putin remain President of Russia through March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.22
|
0.00% |
|
0.0450
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Bill Clinton arrested by Jan 10? |
Yes |
No |
3.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 10 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will OpenAI release GPT-4.5 before April? |
Yes |
No |
0.26
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Sam Altman criminal charges by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
4.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0250
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Sam Altman tweet by Sunday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
5.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0200
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 19 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Respiratory illness surge in China declared a global pandemic by Feb 1? |
Yes |
No |
2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 01 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Houthis seize another ship by December 8? |
Yes |
No |
0.63
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 08 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the Palestinian Authority gain control of Gaza in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
5.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0200
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
New lockdown in US? |
Yes |
No |
2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jan 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the Suez Canal close in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will any Republican congressman come out as gay before March? |
Yes |
No |
2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 01 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Taylor Swift pregnant before March? |
Yes |
No |
2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Chris Christie drop out of presidential race in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.63
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Another Ledger exploit by Jan 31? |
Yes |
No |
2.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0400
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Ethereum spot ETF approved by Mar 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.63
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Color Purple' gross over $15m on Christmas Day? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 26 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Maersk resume shipping through Red Sea by Jan 15? |
Yes |
No |
1.25
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0800
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jan 15 2024
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Maersk resume shipping through Red Sea by end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.30
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
CZ jail before March? |
Yes |
No |
0.42
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
OpenAI board out by end of week? |
Yes |
No |
1.14
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2200
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will OpenAI Merge with Anthropic in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
2.27
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1100
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
LayerZero airdrop by April? |
Yes |
No |
0.57
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 30 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
EigenLayer airdrop by April? |
Yes |
No |
0.71
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 30 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Another Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.61
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will Hamas release 12+ hostages in a single day by EoY? |
Yes |
No |
0.89
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will BTC hit $44,000 in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.71
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.08
|
0.00% |
|
0.1200
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will Qatar buy Bitcoin by Jan 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.93
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
US call for Gaza ceasefire before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.42
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will the Epstein documents name any sitting US congressman? |
Yes |
No |
0.38
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
JUP above $1 one week after launch? |
Yes |
No |
0.89
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Oct 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will Ye say something antisemitic before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.86
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
$BONK all time high before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.81
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Coinbase a top 100 app before Feb? |
Yes |
No |
1.09
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Another Ledger leak/exploit by Mar 31? |
Yes |
No |
1.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
OpenAI settlement with NYT by March? |
Yes |
No |
2.08
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1200
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
NYT drop OpenAI case by March? |
Yes |
No |
2.08
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1200
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will Trump say a racial slur before February? |
Yes |
No |
6.58
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0380
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
American aid to Israel by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
3.13
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0800
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
zkSync airdrop by April? |
Yes |
No |
0.63
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 30 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will US attack Iran in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
3.13
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0800
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will Vivek drop out of presidential race before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.63
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
CZ jail in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
15.86
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0221
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.35
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.35
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by November 19? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.97
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.97
|
Sun Nov 19 2023
|
✅ |
-1.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.39
|
Trades
|
OpenAI permanent CEO by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.56
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will Binance pay >$4b to settle with the US? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.60
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will Kevin McCarthy resign from the House in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.93
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
LayerZero airdrop in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
1.32
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3800
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will ETH hit $2,500 by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
1.11
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' gross over $40m opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4.17
|
0.00% |
|
0.1200
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 20 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will Hamas release more hostages by November 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.39
|
0.00% |
|
0.3600
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will VVD win a plurality in the 2023 Dutch General Election? |
Yes |
No |
1.04
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4800
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 22 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.09
|
0.00% |
|
0.4600
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will 'Napoleon' gross over $32.5m over its 5-day opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.27
|
0.00% |
|
0.2200
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 27 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will 'Wish' gross over $55m over its 5-day opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
7.14
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0700
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 27 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last the full 4 days? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.63
|
0.00% |
|
0.1900
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Iceland volcanic eruption by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.89
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will "Israel" be said 15 or more times in the 3rd RNC primary debate? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.25
|
0.00% |
|
0.4000
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 07 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Will Putin be reelected? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
5.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.1000
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 07 2024
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Biden drop out of presidential race in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
12.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.50
|
Trades
|
Celestia token above $2 one week after airdrop? |
Yes |
No |
1.07
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
1.5120
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.07
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 06 2023
|
✅ |
-1.61
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.55
|
Trades
|
Temporary ceasefire for hostages deal by Nov 10? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 10 2023
|
✅ |
-0.78
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.78
|
Trades
|
Celestia token above $1 one week after airdrop? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 06 2023
|
✅ |
-0.97
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.97
|
Trades
|
Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1? |
Yes |
No |
10.40
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
1.0940
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
10.40
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 01 2023
|
✅ |
-11.38
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.98
|
Trades
|
Will "Trump" be said by every candidate in the 3rd RNC primary debate? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.54
|
0.00% |
|
0.3931
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 07 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed cut rates in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
16.95
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0590
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before Nov 1? |
Yes |
No |
111.11
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0090
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on December 1, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
71.43
|
0.00% |
|
0.0140
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 01 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise rates again in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
6.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on February 1, 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
20.83
|
0.00% |
|
0.0480
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 01 2024
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Anthony Fauci jail by EoY? |
Yes |
No |
33.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.18 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
2.44
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4100
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Hamas still in power in Gaza by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
14.29
|
0.00% |
|
0.0700
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will the New York Times definitively state Israel was not behind the Gaza hospital blast? |
Yes |
No |
3.45
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2900
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 01 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will AI be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
2.27
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 14 2024
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Saudi Aramco's 2023 net income >$120 billion? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.63
|
0.00% |
|
0.3800
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jul 31 2024
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou |
Fury |
Ngannou |
0.00
|
11.11
|
0.00% |
|
0.0900
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 28 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Rugby World Cup: New Zealand vs. South Africa |
New Zealand |
South Africa |
1.82
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 28 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Hikaru win the FIDE Grand Swiss 2023? |
Yes |
No |
7.14
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Nov 04 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? |
Yes |
No |
2.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4000
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will any New York Times staff face consequences for the Gaza hospital strike headline? |
Yes |
No |
10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1000
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 01 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Egypt Presidential Election: Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
25.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0400
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 12 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Fabiano win the FIDE Grand Swiss 2023? |
Yes |
No |
4.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Nov 04 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher) |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
40.94
|
0.00% |
|
0.0293
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.20
|
Trades
|
Will Bitboy remarry by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
20.53
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0744
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.53
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.53
|
Trades
|
Will Hamas release more hostages by November 17? |
Yes |
No |
2.53
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7900
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 17 2023
|
✅ |
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its November meeting? |
Yes |
No |
58.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0343
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its November meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
58.33
|
0.00% |
|
0.0343
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Will another nation declare war in the Israel-Hamas conflict? |
Yes |
No |
11.51
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1737
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Will US attack Iran by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
20.83
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0960
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
29.17
|
29.47
|
|
|
-66.59
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7.96
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.31
|
2.67
|
|
|
-10.45
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-6.47
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30.47
|
32.14
|
|
|
-77.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-14.42
|
|