Will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August? |
Yes |
No |
488.93
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1807
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 01 2024
|
|
-88.34
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-88.34
|
Trades
|
Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last 8 days? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 02 2023
|
✅ |
1,591.43
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,591.43
|
Trades
|
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Hou Yu-ih win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 13 2024
|
✅ |
1,273.13
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,273.13
|
Trades
|
Will Snoop smoke again in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
592.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
592.83
|
Trades
|
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 13 2024
|
✅ |
521.65
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
521.65
|
Trades
|
Will Maersk resume shipping through Red Sea by end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
404.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
404.00
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. Supreme Court vote to reinstate Trump on Colorado's 2024 ballot? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 05 2024
|
✅ |
142.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
142.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
96.34
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
96.34
|
Trades
|
Will Trump win every state in Republican Nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jun 25 2024
|
✅ |
57.22
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
57.22
|
Trades
|
Will Donald Trump file to run for president before 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 31 2022
|
✅ |
21.07
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
21.07
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
14.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
14.83
|
Trades
|
Did Jaan Tallinn bail out SBF? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
80.46
|
0.00% |
|
0.8700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
80.46
|
Sat Apr 01 2023
|
✅ |
-70.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.46
|
Trades
|
Did Dustin Moskovitz bail out SBF? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
102.04
|
0.00% |
|
0.9800
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
102.04
|
Sat Apr 01 2023
|
✅ |
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.04
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Sat Dec 31 2022
|
✅ |
-0.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.60
|
Trades
|
Mark Cuban to announce presidential run by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
500.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0200
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022? |
Yes |
No |
12,346.29
|
0.00
|
5.83% |
0.0014
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 31 2022
|
✅ |
-17.43
|
0.00
|
2.15
|
-15.29
|
Trades
|
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
75.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.2633
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 13 2024
|
✅ |
-19.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-19.75
|
Trades
|
Will Crypto.com become insolvent by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
192.56
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1558
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 31 2022
|
✅ |
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
Sam Altman announces new company by Nov 24? |
Yes |
No |
50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 24 2023
|
✅ |
-32.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-32.00
|
Trades
|
Will FTX become insolvent by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
801.03
|
0.00% |
|
0.0594
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 31 2022
|
✅ |
-47.55
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-47.55
|
Trades
|
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the 2022 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Dec 15 2022
|
✅ |
-53.48
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-53.48
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 31 2023
|
✅ |
-83.31
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-83.31
|
Trades
|
Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? |
Yes |
No |
421.38
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2895
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Dec 15 2022
|
✅ |
-122.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-122.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump appear on Colorado primary ballot? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4,150.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0384
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 06 2024
|
✅ |
-159.45
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-159.45
|
Trades
|
SpaceX Starship launch by March 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
327.87
|
0.00% |
|
0.6100
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 15 2024
|
✅ |
-200.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-200.00
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
2,000.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1000
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-200.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-200.00
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
3,874.13
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0845
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
✅ |
-327.48
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-327.48
|
Trades
|
Houthis strike U.S. military by end of January? |
Yes |
No |
0.49
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-335.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-335.00
|
Trades
|
Will OpenAI release GPT-4.5 before April? |
Yes |
No |
1,806.70
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2351
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
-424.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-424.75
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
182.51
|
|
|
2,481.69
|
0.00
|
2.15
|
2,666.34
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
-88.34
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-88.34
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
182.51
|
|
|
2,393.35
|
0.00
|
2.15
|
2,578.00
|
|