NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? |
Yes |
No |
111.11
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0900
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Trump and Biden both win nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
142.86
|
0.00% |
|
0.3500
|
0.79 |
0.21 |
0.00
|
29.37
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-20.63
|
Trades
|
Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June? |
Yes |
No |
543.48
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0460
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
-25.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-25.00
|
Trades
|
Trump jail before election day? |
Yes |
No |
375.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0800
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
|
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
Netanyahu out by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
227.27
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2200
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Will Biden drop out of presidential race? |
Yes |
No |
200.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2500
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican vice presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
723.13
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1729
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Sep 09 2024
|
|
-125.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-125.00
|
Trades
|
Will Gavin Newsom win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
2,733.52
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1280
|
|
0.06 |
0.94 |
164.60
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-350.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-185.40
|
Trades
|
Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Oct 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 15 2023
|
β
|
1,557.81
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,557.81
|
Trades
|
Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through EoY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
684.62
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
684.62
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by October 2? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 02 2023
|
β
|
675.90
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
675.90
|
Trades
|
Will the next speaker be elected by Oct 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 15 2023
|
β
|
599.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
599.04
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
666.67
|
0.00% |
|
0.1500
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
666.67
|
Fri Oct 20 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
566.67
|
Trades
|
Will Israel regain control of all territory by Oct 8? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 08 2023
|
β
|
554.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
554.20
|
Trades
|
Will Newsom announce Feinstein's replacement by October 2? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 02 2023
|
β
|
534.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
534.00
|
Trades
|
Will the first vote to oust McCarthy succeed? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
389.29
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
389.29
|
Trades
|
Will ProgresΓvne Slovensko win over 18% of votes? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 29 2023
|
β
|
297.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
297.00
|
Trades
|
Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Halloween? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
286.93
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
286.93
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by November 19? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
279.34
|
0.00% |
|
0.3580
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
279.34
|
Sun Nov 19 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
179.34
|
Trades
|
Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
288.31
|
0.00% |
|
0.4128
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
288.31
|
Sat Jun 29 2024
|
β
|
-119.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
169.31
|
Trades
|
Will ETH hit $2,000 by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
211.88
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4720
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
211.88
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
111.88
|
Trades
|
Will Hakeem Jeffries get the most votes in next vote for Speaker? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
45.62
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
45.62
|
Trades
|
Will PiS get over 36% of votes in the 2023 Polish parliamentary election? |
Yes |
No |
3.39
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5900
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 14 2023
|
β
|
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
214.29
|
0.00% |
|
0.0700
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Will the next speaker be elected by Oct 10? |
Yes |
No |
215.41
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0696
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 10 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Will Mahmoud Abbas still be President of the State of Palestine by the end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
166.67
|
0.00% |
|
0.0900
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Congress passes bill banning TikTok by Apr 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
394.74
|
0.00% |
|
0.0380
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 30 2024
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed cut rates in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
300.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Scorigami in NFL Week 5? |
Yes |
No |
187.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0800
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 09 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Will Inter Miami make playoffs? |
Yes |
No |
162.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1231
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-20.00
|
Trades
|
Will the GTA 6 trailer get >600m views on day 1? |
Yes |
No |
1,683.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0149
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 12 2023
|
β
|
-25.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-25.00
|
Trades
|
Will "Trump" be said by every candidate in the 2nd RNC primary debate? |
Yes |
No |
50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5000
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Sep 27 2023
|
β
|
-25.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-25.00
|
Trades
|
Will Newsom appoint a black woman as Feinstein's replacement? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
666.67
|
0.00% |
|
0.0450
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
β
|
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
Will Fantano rate Drake's new album a 7 or higher? |
Yes |
No |
333.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0900
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
Israel or Palestine responsible for Gaza hospital explosion? |
Israel |
Palestine |
1,153.85
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0260
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 20 2023
|
β
|
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
Will any New York Times staff face consequences for the Gaza hospital strike headline? |
Yes |
No |
337.08
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0890
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 01 2023
|
β
|
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
Will Ron DeSantis endorse Trump for President in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
500.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
Starlink available in Gaza by Jan 31? |
Yes |
No |
120.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
'Dune 2' bigger opening weekend than 'Dune'? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
300.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.1000
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Mar 04 2024
|
β
|
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
Will the vote to oust McCarthy have a margin of over 100? |
Yes |
No |
937.20
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0427
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 30 2023
|
β
|
-40.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-40.00
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
277.78
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1800
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Iran in possession of nuclear weapons by EoY? |
Yes |
No |
1,431.14
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0349
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Will BTC hit $40,000 by Halloween? |
Yes |
No |
423.08
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1182
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Starlink available in Gaza by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
922.78
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0542
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
US travel ban for China in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
1,857.24
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0269
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Ecuador Presidential Election: Will Luisa GonzΓ‘lez win? |
Yes |
No |
201.57
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2480
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 15 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump be disqualified from California's primary ballot? |
Yes |
No |
180.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2770
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Mar 04 2024
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trudeau announce resignation by EoY? |
Yes |
No |
143.73
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3479
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Will Hezbollah officially join the war by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
1,000.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump appear on Colorado primary ballot? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
500.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.1000
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 06 2024
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Will a Democrat win the Kentucky gubernatorial election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
200.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.3000
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 07 2023
|
β
|
-60.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-60.00
|
Trades
|
Will Drake's album drop by 10/6? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
366.50
|
0.00% |
|
0.2183
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 06 2023
|
β
|
-80.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-80.00
|
Trades
|
Will the vote to oust McCarthy have a margin of 51-100? |
Yes |
No |
1,943.42
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0489
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 30 2023
|
β
|
-95.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-95.00
|
Trades
|
Will Iran officially join the war in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
1,188.89
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0841
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-100.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump visit Israel by Nov 15? |
Yes |
No |
1,666.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 15 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-100.00
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by October 31? |
Yes |
No |
293.43
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3408
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-100.00
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on February 1, 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1,694.92
|
0.00% |
|
0.0590
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 01 2024
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-100.00
|
Trades
|
SBF sentenced to 50+ years? |
Yes |
No |
488.10
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2049
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-100.00
|
Trades
|
GTA 6 trailer released by Dec 7? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
256.41
|
0.00% |
|
0.3900
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Dec 07 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-100.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump be Speaker by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
1,844.58
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0623
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-115.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-115.00
|
Trades
|
Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack? |
Yes |
No |
1,682.91
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0683
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-115.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-115.00
|
Trades
|
Will βTaylor Swift: Eras Tourβ have a bigger opening weekend than 'Barbie'? |
Yes |
No |
729.14
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1646
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 16 2023
|
β
|
-120.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-120.00
|
Trades
|
Will the next speaker be elected by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
941.93
|
0.00% |
|
0.1327
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 30 2023
|
β
|
-125.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-125.00
|
Trades
|
Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel by Oct 14? |
Yes |
No |
480.54
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2705
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 14 2023
|
β
|
-130.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-130.00
|
Trades
|
Will Russia & Ukraine declare a ceasefire by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
1,449.74
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0897
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-130.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-130.00
|
Trades
|
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
532.63
|
0.00% |
|
0.2816
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 21 2023
|
β
|
-150.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-150.00
|
Trades
|
Will another nation declare war in the Israel-Hamas conflict? |
Yes |
No |
868.81
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1727
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-150.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-150.00
|
Trades
|
Will Israel have full control of its territory on Nov 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2,478.53
|
0.00% |
|
0.0605
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 01 2023
|
β
|
-150.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-150.00
|
Trades
|
Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker? |
Yes |
No |
4,103.91
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0366
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
β
|
-150.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-150.00
|
Trades
|
ETH above $1,600 on Halloween? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2,121.11
|
0.00% |
|
0.0943
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
-200.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-200.00
|
Trades
|
Will Kevin Hern be the next Speaker? |
Yes |
No |
3,840.92
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0651
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
β
|
-250.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-250.00
|
Trades
|
Will MrBeast hit 250 Million subscribers by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
1,327.21
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1884
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-250.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-250.00
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
2,633.85
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1021
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-269.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-269.00
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2,738.69
|
0.00% |
|
0.1022
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
-280.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-280.00
|
Trades
|
Will China invade Taiwan in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
10,417.22
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0269
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-280.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-280.00
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
211.88
|
1,234.31
|
|
|
594.41
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2,040.60
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
164.60
|
29.37
|
|
|
-690.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-496.02
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
376.48
|
1,263.69
|
|
|
-95.59
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,544.58
|
|