Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.7400
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-7.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7.40
|
Trades
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
β
|
9,812.78
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
9,812.78
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by May 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 01 2024
|
β
|
1,866.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,866.28
|
Trades
|
Will Sam Altman raise >$1 trillion in Q1 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
1,670.69
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,670.69
|
Trades
|
Will β₯10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
5,184.71
|
0.00% |
|
0.7570
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
5,184.71
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
β
|
-3,924.88
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,259.83
|
Trades
|
Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
823.88
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
823.88
|
Trades
|
Will OpenAI release GPT-4 by May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
β
|
726.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
726.80
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by June 12? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jun 12 2024
|
β
|
304.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
304.00
|
Trades
|
Will Barbenheimer overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 16 2023
|
β
|
298.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
298.33
|
Trades
|
OpenAI Sora public release before May? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 30 2024
|
β
|
290.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
290.00
|
Trades
|
Will βTaylor Swift: Eras Tourβ have a bigger opening weekend than 'Barbie'? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 16 2023
|
β
|
259.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
259.46
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by July 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
235.29
|
0.00% |
|
0.1700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
235.29
|
Wed Jul 31 2024
|
β
|
-40.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
195.29
|
Trades
|
Will Trump attend the second RNC debate? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Sep 27 2023
|
β
|
81.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
81.00
|
Trades
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1,234.13
|
0.00% |
|
0.9594
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1,234.13
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
β
|
-1,184.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
50.13
|
Trades
|
Trump and Biden both win nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
β
|
10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.00
|
Trades
|
Ilya still at OpenAI on Jan 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
75.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.2000
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jan 01 2024
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
OpenAI board out by end of week? |
Yes |
No |
75.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
β
|
-18.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-18.00
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by March 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
107.14
|
0.00% |
|
0.2800
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
Emmett Shear still CEO of OpenAI by end of week? |
Yes |
No |
71.43
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7000
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Will Netanyahu still be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-55.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-55.00
|
Trades
|
Will any of the college presidents who testified on antisemitism leave by end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
250.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.2200
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-55.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-55.00
|
Trades
|
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
458.33
|
0.00% |
|
0.2018
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 15 2024
|
β
|
-92.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-92.50
|
Trades
|
Will Trump attend the first RNC debate? |
Yes |
No |
400.70
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2496
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Aug 23 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-100.00
|
Trades
|
Will Mike Johnson be the next Speaker? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
628.93
|
0.00% |
|
0.1590
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-100.00
|
Trades
|
Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
196.08
|
0.00% |
|
0.5100
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-100.00
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by September 18? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
238.10
|
0.00% |
|
0.4200
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Sep 18 2024
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-100.00
|
Trades
|
Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
595.83
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1855
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
β
|
-110.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-110.50
|
Trades
|
Will X unban Alex Jones in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
325.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.6862
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-223.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-223.00
|
Trades
|
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-223.90
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-223.90
|
Trades
|
Which party will win the 2024 United States presidential election? |
Democratic |
Republican |
900.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3700
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 08 2024
|
β
|
-333.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-333.00
|
Trades
|
Will Biden drop out of presidential race? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
900.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.6500
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
β
|
-585.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-585.00
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
6,654.13
|
|
|
8,803.44
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
15,457.57
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
-7.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7.40
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
6,654.13
|
|
|
8,796.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
15,450.17
|
|