Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its July meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jul 25 2023
|
β
|
15,094.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
15,094.32
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by March 20? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 20 2024
|
β
|
13,765.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
13,765.23
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after its May meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 02 2023
|
β
|
11,126.55
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
11,126.55
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its December meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 12 2023
|
β
|
9,808.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
9,808.33
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its December meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Dec 13 2023
|
β
|
8,522.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8,522.49
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its September meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Sep 20 2023
|
β
|
6,600.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6,600.49
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its November meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
5,370.98
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5,370.98
|
Trades
|
Will Trump be Speaker by April 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Apr 01 2024
|
β
|
4,494.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4,494.25
|
Trades
|
Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by August 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 31 2023
|
β
|
4,492.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4,492.70
|
Trades
|
Will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 01 2024
|
β
|
3,458.69
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3,458.69
|
Trades
|
Hamas still in power in Gaza by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
β
|
3,367.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3,367.75
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after its June meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jun 13 2023
|
β
|
3,174.93
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3,174.93
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its September meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Sep 20 2023
|
β
|
2,931.35
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2,931.35
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by May 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
20,722.79
|
0.00% |
|
0.9385
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
20,722.79
|
Wed May 01 2024
|
β
|
-19,449.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,273.65
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 0 bps after its June meeting? |
Yes |
No |
7,917.51
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.8661
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
7,917.51
|
0.00
|
Tue Jun 13 2023
|
β
|
-6,857.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,060.47
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by June 12? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jun 12 2024
|
β
|
1,007.06
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1,007.06
|
Trades
|
Military intervention in Niger by September 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 15 2023
|
β
|
964.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
964.68
|
Trades
|
Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Oct 20? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 20 2023
|
β
|
849.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
849.42
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by July 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
17,353.94
|
0.00% |
|
0.9636
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
17,353.94
|
Wed Jul 31 2024
|
β
|
-16,721.59
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
632.35
|
Trades
|
ETH above $3,000 on March 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 01 2024
|
β
|
414.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
414.75
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its July meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3,131.18
|
0.00% |
|
0.8695
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
3,131.18
|
Tue Jul 25 2023
|
β
|
-2,722.67
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
408.51
|
Trades
|
Will Biden visit Israel by end of week? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 22 2023
|
β
|
364.13
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
364.13
|
Trades
|
Ethereum spot ETF approved by Jan 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
346.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
346.80
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.0% from June to July 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Aug 09 2023
|
β
|
341.39
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
341.39
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its November meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
7,483.20
|
0.00% |
|
0.9546
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
7,483.20
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
-7,143.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
339.90
|
Trades
|
Will Trump attend the first RNC debate? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Aug 23 2023
|
β
|
334.73
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
334.73
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by January 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
16,665.49
|
0.00% |
|
0.9846
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
16,665.49
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
-16,408.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
256.81
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
202.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
202.26
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by September 18? |
Yes |
No |
2,595.49
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9382
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
2,595.49
|
0.00
|
Wed Sep 18 2024
|
β
|
-2,435.17
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
160.32
|
Trades
|
US Ethereum ETF approved in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
132.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
132.42
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed cut rates in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15,625.86
|
0.00% |
|
0.9918
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
15,625.86
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-15,498.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
127.51
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 0 bps after its May meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2,919.70
|
0.00% |
|
0.9588
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
2,919.70
|
Tue May 02 2023
|
β
|
-2,799.51
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
120.19
|
Trades
|
Ethereum all time high by Friday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 08 2024
|
β
|
116.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
116.20
|
Trades
|
Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by July 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jul 31 2023
|
β
|
101.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
101.20
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its January meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
101.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
101.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after its January meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
4,715.86
|
0.00% |
|
0.9796
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
4,715.86
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
-4,619.64
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
96.22
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.1% from June to July 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Aug 09 2023
|
β
|
95.95
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
95.95
|
Trades
|
Ethereum all time high by end of March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
84.89
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
84.89
|
Trades
|
Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by March 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Mar 30 2023
|
β
|
77.85
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
77.85
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.0% from April to May 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jun 12 2023
|
β
|
68.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
68.32
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.0% from May to June 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jul 10 2023
|
β
|
63.95
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
63.95
|
Trades
|
ETH above $1,700 on Sep 8? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 08 2023
|
β
|
31.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
31.25
|
Trades
|
Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Oct 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 15 2023
|
β
|
30.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
30.75
|
Trades
|
Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by July 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jul 15 2023
|
β
|
29.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
29.83
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise rates again in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3,430.46
|
0.00% |
|
0.9914
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
3,430.46
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-3,401.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
29.35
|
Trades
|
Biden to drop out before April? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
3,981.43
|
0.00% |
|
0.9932
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
3,981.43
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
-3,954.22
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
27.21
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after its June meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
765.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9695
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
765.00
|
Mon Jun 12 2023
|
β
|
-741.65
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
23.35
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 20 2023
|
β
|
18.45
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
18.45
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by October 2? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 02 2023
|
β
|
18.29
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
18.29
|
Trades
|
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Patricia Bullrich win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 21 2023
|
β
|
17.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
17.25
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.1% from March to April 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 09 2023
|
β
|
17.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
17.23
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after its July meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1,197.50
|
0.00% |
|
0.9875
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1,197.50
|
Tue Jul 25 2023
|
β
|
-1,182.53
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
14.97
|
Trades
|
Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1,340.15
|
0.00% |
|
0.9942
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1,340.15
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-1,332.39
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.76
|
Trades
|
Military intervention in Niger by October 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
6.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.60
|
Trades
|
Will TraorΓ© remain President of Burkina Faso through August 31? |
Yes |
No |
215.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9786
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
215.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 31 2023
|
β
|
-210.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.60
|
Trades
|
Trump and Biden both win nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
β
|
4.06
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.06
|
Trades
|
Ethereum ETF approved by end of March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
999.19
|
0.00% |
|
0.9960
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
999.19
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
-995.19
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump tweet again by Aug 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
494.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9921
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
494.00
|
Thu Aug 31 2023
|
β
|
-490.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.91
|
Trades
|
Will Venezuela invade Guyana in February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
2.56
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.56
|
Trades
|
ETH above $1,700 on Sep 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 01 2023
|
β
|
2.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.50
|
Trades
|
Ethereum spot ETF approved by Mar 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
621.48
|
0.00% |
|
0.9968
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
621.48
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
β
|
-619.51
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.97
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50 bps after its June meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
115.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9900
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
115.00
|
Tue Jun 13 2023
|
β
|
-113.85
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.15
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Sunday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15.79
|
0.00% |
|
0.9500
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
15.79
|
Sun Oct 22 2023
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.79
|
Trades
|
Will Argentina presidential election go to a second round? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 23 2023
|
β
|
0.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.75
|
Trades
|
Will $BTC reach $32,500 by July 14? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jul 14 2023
|
β
|
0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.30
|
Trades
|
Will ErdoΔan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun May 14 2023
|
β
|
-8.92
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-8.92
|
Trades
|
US Congress approve more Ukraine aid in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-9.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-9.75
|
Trades
|
Israeli troops on the ground in Gaza by the end of this week? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 13 2023
|
β
|
-20.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-20.40
|
Trades
|
Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 01 2023
|
β
|
-192.47
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-192.47
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10,728.00
|
101,578.02
|
|
|
-9,887.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
102,418.32
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10,728.00
|
101,578.02
|
|
|
-9,887.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
102,418.32
|
|