Which party will win the 2024 United States presidential election? |
Democratic |
Republican |
0.56
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.48 |
0.52 |
0.26
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 08 2024
|
|
-0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.04
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.91
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.04 |
0.96 |
0.04
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.06
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.30
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.93 |
0.07 |
0.00
|
0.02
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-0.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.12
|
Trades
|
Will ETH hit $2,000 by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
31.53
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5048
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
31.53
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-15.92
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
15.62
|
Trades
|
Will the Nuggets be the 2022-23 NBA Champion? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jun 17 2023
|
β
|
6.17
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.17
|
Trades
|
Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 31 2023
|
β
|
4.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.83
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH hit $1,000 or $2,000 first? |
1k |
2k |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
4.54
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.54
|
Trades
|
Will "The Fabelmans" win the Oscar for Best Picture |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Mar 13 2023
|
β
|
2.89
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.89
|
Trades
|
Will Tiktok be banned in the US by May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
β
|
1.95
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.95
|
Trades
|
Will ErdoΔan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun May 14 2023
|
β
|
1.29
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.29
|
Trades
|
Will 'Barbie' or 'Oppenheimer' gross more on opening weekend? |
Barbie |
Oppenheimer |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jul 24 2023
|
β
|
1.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.11
|
Trades
|
2023 NBA Conference Finals: Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics |
Heat |
Celtics |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun May 28 2023
|
β
|
0.88
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.88
|
Trades
|
NFL Thursday: Titans vs. Packers |
Titans |
Packers |
1.03
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3890
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.03
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 17 2022
|
β
|
-0.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.63
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH be above $1700 on March 24? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 24 2023
|
β
|
0.54
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.54
|
Trades
|
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the 2022 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Dec 15 2022
|
β
|
0.52
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.52
|
Trades
|
Will 'Barbie' gross over $90m on its second weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jul 31 2023
|
β
|
0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.50
|
Trades
|
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03Β°C or higher) |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
0.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.42
|
Trades
|
Will Sam Altman testify before congress by May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
β
|
0.37
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.37
|
Trades
|
Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jul 24 2023
|
β
|
0.24
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.24
|
Trades
|
Musk vs. Zuck: Aug 31 |
Musk |
Zuck |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 31 2023
|
β
|
0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.20
|
Trades
|
$ARB above $1 one week after launch? |
Yes |
No |
0.18
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.18
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.05
|
Trades
|
Will Do Kwon be extradited to the United States or South Korea? |
United States |
South Korea |
0.16
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.08
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.06
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.02
|
Trades
|
Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.05
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.05
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
β
|
-0.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.07
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.07
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
β
|
-0.07
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump smile in his mugshot? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
β
|
-0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Will $ARB hit $1 or $2 first? |
$1 first |
$2 first |
0.00
|
0.03
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Will Kane sign for Real Madrid? |
Yes |
No |
0.02
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 01 2023
|
β
|
-0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden file to run for president by March 31, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.13
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Will NATO expand by March 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Apr 01 2023
|
β
|
-0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
$ARB above $10 one week after launch? |
Yes |
No |
0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Mar 30 2023
|
β
|
-0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? |
Yes |
No |
0.17
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.09
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Wisconsin Supreme Court: Protasiewicz (D) vs. Kelly (R) |
Protasiewicz |
Kelly |
0.00
|
0.14
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 04 2023
|
β
|
-0.02
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.02
|
Trades
|
Will Binance.US shut down by April 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.22
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
β
|
-0.02
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.02
|
Trades
|
Will Huobi become insolvent by Mar 31, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
1.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0200
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.03
|
Trades
|
$ARB above $2 one week after launch? |
Yes |
No |
0.67
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Mar 30 2023
|
β
|
-0.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.04
|
Trades
|
ETH above $1,700 on Aug 25? |
Yes |
No |
0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Aug 25 2023
|
β
|
-0.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.04
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH moon after Shanghai? |
Yes |
No |
0.16
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.05
|
Trades
|
Will Silvergate announce it is filing for bankruptcy by March 31, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.06
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.06
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 0 bps after its March meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.40
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 22 2023
|
β
|
-0.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.08
|
Trades
|
Will Uniswap's wallet be live on the iOS app store by April 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.10
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
β
|
-0.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.09
|
Trades
|
Will USDC redemption or minting be halted in the U.S. by April 30? |
Yes |
No |
2.40
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0409
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after its May meeting? |
Yes |
No |
1.90
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0516
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 02 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
2023 NBA Conference Finals: Denver Nuggets vs. LA Lakers |
Nuggets |
Lakers |
0.00
|
0.33
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat May 27 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Adam22 and Lena The Plug break up this month? |
Yes |
No |
3.33
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jul 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
zkSync airdrop by June 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Jun 01 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will Trump be arrested on Tuesday? |
Yes |
No |
10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0100
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 21 2023
|
β
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will there be a Senate vacancy in Pennsylvania by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.62
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.12
|
Trades
|
Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win the Oscar for Best Picture? |
Yes |
No |
15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0100
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Mar 13 2023
|
β
|
-0.15
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.15
|
Trades
|
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
7.21
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0274
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
β
|
-0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.20
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH be above $1700 on March 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.54
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Mar 30 2023
|
β
|
-0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.20
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.0% from April to May 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.54
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jun 12 2023
|
β
|
-0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.20
|
Trades
|
Chicago Mayor Margin of Victory >5%? |
Yes |
No |
20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0100
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 04 2023
|
β
|
-0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.20
|
Trades
|
Will the Nuggets sweep the Heat? |
Yes |
No |
1.09
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 11 2023
|
β
|
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will OpenAI release GPT-4 by May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.03
|
0.00% |
|
0.2900
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.30
|
Trades
|
World Cup: Tuesday - Argentina vs. Croatia |
Argentina |
Croatia |
0.00
|
0.94
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 13 2022
|
β
|
-0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.30
|
Trades
|
Will a third US bank fail by March 17? |
Yes |
No |
3.89
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1800
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 17 2023
|
β
|
-0.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.70
|
Trades
|
Balaji Bet: BTC > $1m USD on June 17? |
Yes |
No |
84.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0111
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jun 17 2023
|
β
|
-0.94
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.94
|
Trades
|
NFL Sunday: Bengals vs. Chiefs |
Bengals |
Chiefs |
2.04
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4900
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 29 2023
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will 'Don't Worry Darling' gross more than $20 million domestically on its opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
1.42
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7063
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Sep 26 2022
|
β
|
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
$ARB above $1.25 on April 7? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Apr 07 2023
|
β
|
-1.94
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.94
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50 bps after its November meeting? |
Yes |
No |
39.84
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0502
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 02 2022
|
β
|
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed cut rates in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
4.97
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5152
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-2.56
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.56
|
Trades
|
Boxing: Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury |
Paul |
Fury |
4.47
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6711
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Feb 26 2023
|
β
|
-3.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.00
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
32.97
|
0.07
|
|
|
-6.43
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
26.61
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.30
|
0.02
|
|
|
-0.54
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.22
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
33.27
|
0.09
|
|
|
-6.97
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
26.39
|
|