Will Pope Francis remain Pope through June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Trades
|
Will Gavin Newsom win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.06 |
0.94 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-0.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.03
|
Trades
|
Will ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.7800
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
|
-11.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-11.70
|
Trades
|
Iceland volcanic eruption by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
44.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
44.80
|
Trades
|
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 21 2023
|
✅ |
22.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
22.00
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.15 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
15.85
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
15.85
|
Trades
|
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 15 2024
|
✅ |
11.55
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
11.55
|
Trades
|
CZ jail before March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
10.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.50
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.18 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
2.90
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.90
|
Trades
|
Will Elon Musk visit Gaza in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
1.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.20
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in South Gaza by Dec 8? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 08 2023
|
✅ |
0.90
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.90
|
Trades
|
Will Maersk resume shipping through Red Sea by end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.75
|
Trades
|
US military intervention by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.63
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.63
|
Trades
|
Mark Cuban to announce presidential run by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.60
|
Trades
|
Will Snoop smoke again in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.49
|
Trades
|
Will OpenAI be for-profit by March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
0.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.40
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by November 19? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 19 2023
|
✅ |
0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.30
|
Trades
|
American aid to Israel by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.20
|
Trades
|
Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
✅ |
0.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.12
|
Trades
|
Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.05
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its December meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 12 2023
|
✅ |
0.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.05
|
Trades
|
Sam Altman announces new company by Nov 24? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 24 2023
|
✅ |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Was Sam Altman fired due to data leak / privacy issue? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.00
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on December 1, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.71
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 01 2023
|
✅ |
-0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Was Sam Altman fired for sexually abusing his sister? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.01
|
Trades
|
Will Russia & Ukraine declare a ceasefire by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.03
|
Trades
|
Sam Altman criminal charges by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.03
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on February 1, 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.83
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 01 2024
|
✅ |
-0.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.04
|
Trades
|
Will AI be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 14 2024
|
✅ |
-0.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.04
|
Trades
|
Will Pope Francis remain Pope through 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.11
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.13 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.13
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.13
|
Trades
|
Will crude oil hit $120 in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 29 2023
|
✅ |
-0.15
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.15
|
Trades
|
Will Apple announce M3 Chip at its "Scary Fast" event? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
11.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0191
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.21
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.21
|
Trades
|
Will SpaceX's Starship lift 500m from pad by Nov 19? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 19 2023
|
✅ |
-0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.25
|
Trades
|
Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last the full 4 days? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.30
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its November meeting? |
Yes |
No |
10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.30
|
Trades
|
Will the Palestinian Authority gain control of Gaza in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0500
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.75
|
Trades
|
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency for Chinese pneumonia outbreak in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.00
|
Trades
|
Will Venezuela invade Guyana in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.41
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.41
|
Trades
|
Will Ukraine receive F-16s by end of January? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-2.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.10
|
Trades
|
Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last 8 days? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 02 2023
|
✅ |
-2.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.80
|
Trades
|
Will BTC hit $44,000 in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
11.59
|
0.00% |
|
0.3100
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-3.59
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.59
|
Trades
|
Another Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-3.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.75
|
Trades
|
SBF sentenced to 50+ years? |
Yes |
No |
15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3167
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
✅ |
-4.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-4.75
|
Trades
|
Will Israel announce 24h+ humanitarian pause by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-5.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-5.60
|
Trades
|
Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last 10 days? |
Yes |
No |
15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4813
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Dec 04 2023
|
✅ |
-7.22
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7.22
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.01
|
0.00
|
|
|
78.59
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
78.60
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
-11.73
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-11.73
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.01
|
0.00
|
|
|
66.86
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
66.87
|
|