Will First Republic Bank fail by April 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
β
|
438.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
438.75
|
Trades
|
BTC above $28,000 at end of August? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Aug 31 2023
|
β
|
239.59
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
239.59
|
Trades
|
Will $ARB hit $1 or $2 first? |
$1 first |
$2 first |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
181.92
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
181.92
|
Trades
|
Will ETH hit $3,000 in February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
136.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
136.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 0 bps after its May meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 02 2023
|
β
|
117.39
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
117.39
|
Trades
|
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? |
Yes |
No |
0.02
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
97.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
97.81
|
Trades
|
Will Elon and Zuck announce a fight? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jul 01 2023
|
β
|
79.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
79.60
|
Trades
|
Will SpaceX's Starship reach outer space by September 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 29 2023
|
β
|
47.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
47.50
|
Trades
|
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
23.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
23.40
|
Trades
|
Will BTC hit $50,000 in February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
22.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
22.75
|
Trades
|
Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
β
|
2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.00
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on June 1, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
95.79
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9840
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
95.79
|
0.00
|
Thu Jun 01 2023
|
β
|
-94.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.53
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50 bps after its May meeting? |
Yes |
No |
1,000.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0100
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 02 2023
|
β
|
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its September meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2,000.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0100
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Sep 20 2023
|
β
|
-20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-20.00
|
Trades
|
ARB above $1.50 on April 26? |
Yes |
No |
1,500.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0200
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Apr 26 2023
|
β
|
-30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-30.00
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
1,000.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
β
|
-40.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-40.00
|
Trades
|
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
1,000.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
β
|
-40.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-40.00
|
Trades
|
Putin to remain President of Russia through Monday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1,000.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0600
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jun 26 2023
|
β
|
-60.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-60.00
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on December 1, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2,000.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0430
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 01 2023
|
β
|
-86.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-86.00
|
Trades
|
Will ErdoΔan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
762.10
|
0.00% |
|
0.1894
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun May 14 2023
|
β
|
-144.37
|
3.44
|
0.00
|
-140.93
|
Trades
|
Tucker Carlson + Putin interview released by Friday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2,650.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0568
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Feb 09 2024
|
β
|
-150.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-150.50
|
Trades
|
US debt ceiling hike by June 1? |
Yes |
No |
1,955.64
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1205
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Jun 01 2023
|
β
|
-235.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-235.68
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
95.80
|
0.00
|
|
|
475.90
|
3.44
|
0.00
|
575.14
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
95.80
|
0.00
|
|
|
475.90
|
3.44
|
0.00
|
575.14
|
|