Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.87 |
0.13 |
0.87
|
0.00
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
|
-0.78
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.09
|
Trades
|
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-0.87
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.87
|
Trades
|
George Santos wins NY-1 Republican Primary? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jun 25 2024
|
|
-0.96
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.96
|
Trades
|
Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.8100
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
-1.62
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.62
|
Trades
|
Will Biden drop out of presidential race? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.8200
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
|
-1.64
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.64
|
Trades
|
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
2.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9350
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
-1.87
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.87
|
Trades
|
Military intervention in Niger by September 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 15 2023
|
✅ |
7.57
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.57
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by October 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
5.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.46
|
Trades
|
Will the next speaker be elected by Oct 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 15 2023
|
✅ |
4.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.83
|
Trades
|
US military intervention by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
4.27
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.27
|
Trades
|
Will PiS get over 36% of votes in the 2023 Polish parliamentary election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 14 2023
|
✅ |
3.37
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.37
|
Trades
|
Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Oct 20? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 20 2023
|
✅ |
3.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.26
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
2.99
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.99
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by January 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
2.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.42
|
Trades
|
Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
2.17
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.17
|
Trades
|
Will Zelensky remain President of Ukraine through March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
2.15
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.15
|
Trades
|
Will SpaceX's Starship reach outer space by September 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 29 2023
|
✅ |
1.69
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.69
|
Trades
|
Ukraine aid package by March 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
1.44
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.44
|
Trades
|
US Congress approve more Ukraine aid in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
1.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.42
|
Trades
|
Will Ukraine receive F-16s by end of January? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
1.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.40
|
Trades
|
Will crude oil hit $100 in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 29 2023
|
✅ |
1.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.23
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump in March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
1.19
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.19
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
1.13
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.13
|
Trades
|
Will Sweden join NATO by February 29? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
1.13
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.13
|
Trades
|
Will Saudi Arabia boost oil production in Q4? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 17 2024
|
✅ |
1.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.12
|
Trades
|
Ukraine aid package in February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
✅ |
1.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.12
|
Trades
|
Bitcoin all time high by Mar 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
1.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.11
|
Trades
|
Will Trump violate bail by September 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Sep 30 2023
|
✅ |
1.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.10
|
Trades
|
Will the next speaker be elected by Oct 20? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 20 2023
|
✅ |
1.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.10
|
Trades
|
American aid to Israel by Nov 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 15 2023
|
✅ |
1.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.10
|
Trades
|
Facebook outage caused by hack? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 10 2024
|
✅ |
1.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.10
|
Trades
|
Will Russia & Ukraine declare a ceasefire by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
1.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.09
|
Trades
|
Will Israel invade Lebanon before April? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
✅ |
1.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.09
|
Trades
|
American aid to Israel by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
1.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.08
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by January 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
1.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.04
|
Trades
|
Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
✅ |
0.61
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.61
|
Trades
|
Will SMER win a plurality? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.18
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Sep 29 2023
|
✅ |
-0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
Trades
|
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 21 2023
|
✅ |
-0.27
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.27
|
Trades
|
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before Nov 1? |
Yes |
No |
10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.60
|
Trades
|
Will the next speaker be elected by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.75
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.79
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.79
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by May 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 01 2024
|
✅ |
-0.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.82
|
Trades
|
Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 01 2023
|
✅ |
-0.91
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.91
|
Trades
|
Will Google have the best LLM before 2024? |
Yes |
No |
6.71
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.94
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.94
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by October 2? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 02 2023
|
✅ |
-1.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.10
|
Trades
|
Will Zelensky visit Israel by Nov 10? |
Yes |
No |
2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 10 2023
|
✅ |
-1.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.46
|
Trades
|
Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Oct 15? |
Yes |
No |
4.31
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.8813
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 15 2023
|
✅ |
-3.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.80
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
50.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
50.23
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.87
|
0.00
|
|
|
-7.74
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-6.87
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.87
|
0.00
|
|
|
42.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
43.36
|
|