Trump and Biden both win nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.79 |
0.21 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
7.89
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.89
|
Trades
|
Will Elon get someone pregnant before July? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.02
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
2.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.49
|
Trades
|
Which party will win the 2024 United States presidential election? |
Democratic |
Republican |
50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4800
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
25.18
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 08 2024
|
|
-24.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.18
|
Trades
|
Will Gavin Newsom win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.06 |
0.94 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
|
-3.53
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.53
|
Trades
|
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? |
Yes |
No |
55.56
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0900
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
|
-5.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-5.00
|
Trades
|
Will Kamala Harris win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
81.26
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2680
|
|
0.08 |
0.92 |
6.70
|
0.00
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
|
-21.77
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.08
|
Trades
|
Will Taylor Swift be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
β
|
92.18
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
92.18
|
Trades
|
Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
β
|
24.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
24.46
|
Trades
|
GTA 6 trailer released by Dec 7? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Dec 07 2023
|
β
|
19.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
19.23
|
Trades
|
American aid to Israel by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
5.77
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
-1.8564
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
10.71
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.71
|
Trades
|
Will 'Wonka' gross over $35m over its opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 17 2023
|
β
|
9.99
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.00
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in South Gaza by Dec 8? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 08 2023
|
β
|
9.22
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
9.23
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out before Super Tuesday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Tue Mar 05 2024
|
β
|
9.18
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
9.18
|
Trades
|
Will Biden say "Ukraine/Ukranian" three or more times during his State of the Union address? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 06 2024
|
β
|
7.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.23
|
Trades
|
Will Trump win every state in Republican Nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Jun 25 2024
|
β
|
7.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.14
|
Trades
|
Will a Korean team win LOL Worlds 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 19 2023
|
β
|
7.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.00
|
Trades
|
Claudine Gay still Harvard President by end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
5.92
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.93
|
Trades
|
Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last 10 days? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Dec 04 2023
|
β
|
5.69
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.69
|
Trades
|
Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
4.92
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.92
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by November 19? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 19 2023
|
β
|
4.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.50
|
Trades
|
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
β
|
3.47
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.47
|
Trades
|
Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last 8 days? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 02 2023
|
β
|
3.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.33
|
Trades
|
US call for Gaza ceasefire before March? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
1.58
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.58
|
Trades
|
US Congress approve more Ukraine aid in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.00
|
Trades
|
Will George Santos start an OnlyFans in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
69.76
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
-0.0007
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
0.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.05
|
Trades
|
Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last the full 4 days? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-0.58
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.57
|
Trades
|
Will Biden say "folks" four or more times during his State of the Union address? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 06 2024
|
β
|
-1.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.20
|
Trades
|
Ukraine aid package in February? |
Yes |
No |
15.38
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1300
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Feb 29 2024
|
β
|
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Sam Altman back on OpenAI board by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
β
|
-2.61
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.61
|
Trades
|
Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
β
|
-2.72
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.72
|
Trades
|
Titans vs. Panthers |
Titans |
Panthers |
0.00
|
6.45
|
0.00% |
|
0.4700
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
β
|
-3.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.03
|
Trades
|
Will Hamas release 20+ hostages in a single day by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
β
|
-4.41
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-4.41
|
Trades
|
Will Kanye release βVulturesβ by Friday? |
Yes |
No |
45.45
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1100
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 15 2023
|
β
|
-5.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-5.00
|
Trades
|
Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? |
Yes |
No |
11.36
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 28 2024
|
β
|
-5.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-5.00
|
Trades
|
Will Vladimir Putin say Zelensky in his upcoming interview with Tucker Carlson? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15.63
|
0.00% |
|
0.3200
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Feb 07 2024
|
β
|
-5.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-5.00
|
Trades
|
Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
71.08
|
0.00% |
|
0.1407
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will Ronna Mcdaniel step down as RNC Chair before Super Tuesday? |
Yes |
No |
14.49
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6900
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 05 2024
|
β
|
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will Hamas release 12+ hostages in a single day by EoY? |
Yes |
No |
47.62
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2100
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will AI be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
34.09
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 14 2024
|
β
|
-15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-15.00
|
Trades
|
Will Kevin McCarthy resign from the House in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
41.28
|
0.00% |
|
0.5088
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-21.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-21.00
|
Trades
|
Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
β
|
-29.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-29.70
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley win any state on Super Tuesday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
60.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.8300
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 05 2024
|
β
|
-49.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-49.80
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.04
|
0.02
|
|
|
49.74
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
49.80
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31.89
|
0.00
|
|
|
-43.93
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-12.04
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31.93
|
0.02
|
|
|
5.81
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
37.76
|
|