Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
35.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1039
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-3.63
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.63
|
Trades
|
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3500
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-7.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7.00
|
Trades
|
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
30.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.3500
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Mar 01 2025
|
|
-10.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.50
|
Trades
|
Will Argentina dollarize in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
20.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.8100
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-16.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-16.20
|
Trades
|
Taylor Swift engaged in 2024? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5400
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Dec 31 2024
|
|
-54.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-54.00
|
Trades
|
Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 01 2023
|
✅ |
101.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
101.00
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Oct 20 2023
|
✅ |
57.45
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
57.45
|
Trades
|
Will a North American team make it to the knockout stage in LoL Worlds? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Nov 13 2023
|
✅ |
35.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
35.20
|
Trades
|
Hamas still in power in Gaza by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
✅ |
33.54
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
33.54
|
Trades
|
Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
28.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
28.50
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
27.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
27.30
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
25.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
25.05
|
Trades
|
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
17.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
17.60
|
Trades
|
US military intervention by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
16.07
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
16.07
|
Trades
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Feb 24 2024
|
✅ |
14.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
14.40
|
Trades
|
Will there be a US government shutdown by November 19? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 19 2023
|
✅ |
13.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
13.00
|
Trades
|
Will Ron DeSantis win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
✅ |
12.47
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.47
|
Trades
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
14.29
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2300
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
14.29
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-3.29
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
11.00
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by March 20? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 20 2024
|
✅ |
8.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8.28
|
Trades
|
Fed rate cut by July 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.1850
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
10.00
|
Wed Jul 31 2024
|
✅ |
-1.85
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8.15
|
Trades
|
Will another nation declare war in the Israel-Hamas conflict? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
45.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.8600
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
45.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-38.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.30
|
Trades
|
Will MrBeast hit 250 Million subscribers by Dec 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
30.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.8150
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
30.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-24.45
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.55
|
Trades
|
Will Hezbollah officially join the war in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.6600
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
15.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-9.90
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.10
|
Trades
|
Will Iran officially join the war in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
45.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9167
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
45.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-41.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.75
|
Trades
|
Netanyahu out by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
✅ |
3.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.10
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Sunday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 22 2023
|
✅ |
3.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.00
|
Trades
|
Will Hamas release 20+ hostages in a single day by Nov 15? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 15 2023
|
✅ |
3.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.00
|
Trades
|
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15.00
|
0.00% |
|
-0.1820
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
2.73
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.73
|
Trades
|
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.8500
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
15.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-12.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.25
|
Trades
|
Will Musk fight Zuck in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
30.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9300
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
30.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-27.90
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.10
|
Trades
|
Will Elon Musk be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15.33
|
0.00% |
|
0.9302
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
15.33
|
Sat Jan 14 2023
|
✅ |
-14.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.07
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.01
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
✅ |
0.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.26
|
Trades
|
New Ye music this year? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
100.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.15 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-0.15
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.15
|
Trades
|
Will Apple announce M3 Chip at its "Scary Fast" event? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0210
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Oct 30 2023
|
✅ |
-0.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.32
|
Trades
|
Will 'Five Nights at Freddy's' gross over $60m opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
30.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0190
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Oct 29 2023
|
✅ |
-0.57
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.57
|
Trades
|
Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou |
Fury |
Ngannou |
0.00
|
15.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0800
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Oct 28 2023
|
✅ |
-1.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.20
|
Trades
|
Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Aug 10 2024
|
✅ |
-1.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.60
|
Trades
|
Will BTC hit $40,000 by Halloween? |
Yes |
No |
15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1200
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
✅ |
-1.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1.80
|
Trades
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by December 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-2.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.10
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.05 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0310
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Dec 30 2023
|
✅ |
-3.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.10
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.08 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0320
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-3.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.20
|
Trades
|
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher) |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0330
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-3.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.30
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Marvels' gross more than $75 million domestically on its opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1100
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 12 2023
|
✅ |
-3.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.30
|
Trades
|
Starlink available in Gaza by Nov 30? |
Yes |
No |
50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0800
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Nov 30 2023
|
✅ |
-4.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-4.00
|
Trades
|
Will Saudi Arabia accept invitation to join BRICS? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
30.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.1700
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jan 01 2024
|
✅ |
-5.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-5.10
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Marvels' gross more than $65 million domestically on its opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1200
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 12 2023
|
✅ |
-6.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-6.00
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.13 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
50.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.1300
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-6.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-6.50
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Marvels' gross more than $55 million domestically on its opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
15.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 12 2023
|
✅ |
-6.90
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-6.90
|
Trades
|
Will crude oil hit $100 in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
20.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Dec 29 2023
|
✅ |
-7.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7.20
|
Trades
|
Hamas lose power in Gaza before February? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
10.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.7800
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Jan 31 2024
|
✅ |
-7.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7.80
|
Trades
|
Will Trump visit Israel by Nov 15? |
Yes |
No |
50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2000
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 15 2023
|
✅ |
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will AI be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? |
Yes |
No |
30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.3600
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jan 14 2024
|
✅ |
-10.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.80
|
Trades
|
Will Biden drop out of presidential race? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
15.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.7400
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Nov 05 2024
|
✅ |
-11.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-11.10
|
Trades
|
Will 'The Marvels' flop? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-16.15
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-16.15
|
Trades
|
SBF guilty of all charges? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
44.72
|
0.00% |
|
0.4200
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Jun 30 2024
|
✅ |
-18.78
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-18.78
|
Trades
|
Trump and Biden both win nomination? |
Yes |
No |
30.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.6700
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Sep 10 2024
|
✅ |
-20.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-20.10
|
Trades
|
Will the final global heat increase be 1.11 or greater for 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
300.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0700
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
✅ |
-21.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-21.00
|
Trades
|
Any hostage deal brokered with Hamas by Nov 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
30.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.7200
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Nov 01 2023
|
✅ |
-21.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-21.60
|
Trades
|
Which party will win the 2024 United States presidential election? |
Democratic |
Republican |
85.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4794
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 08 2024
|
✅ |
-40.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-40.75
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.29
|
205.33
|
|
|
-6.81
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
212.82
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
-91.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-91.33
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.29
|
205.33
|
|
|
-98.15
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
121.48
|
|