Will OpenAI release GPT-4.5 before April? |
Yes |
No |
289.15
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
-0.0013
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 31 2024
|
|
0.38
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.38
|
Trades
|
Will ErdoΔan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun May 14 2023
|
β
|
90,245.06
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
90,245.06
|
Trades
|
Will the Turkish presidential election go to a second round? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun May 14 2023
|
β
|
7,639.66
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7,639.66
|
Trades
|
Will a third US bank fail by March 17? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 17 2023
|
β
|
3,610.59
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3,610.59
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH be above $1550 on March 17? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 17 2023
|
β
|
717.61
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
717.61
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. Supreme Court vote to reinstate Trump on Colorado's 2024 ballot? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 05 2024
|
β
|
538.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
538.36
|
Trades
|
Will Trump be arrested on Tuesday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Mar 21 2023
|
β
|
247.98
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
247.98
|
Trades
|
US military intervention by Oct 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
172.93
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
172.93
|
Trades
|
Will $BTC reach $30,000 by April 7? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Apr 07 2023
|
β
|
160.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
160.82
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 0 bps after its March meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 22 2023
|
β
|
159.41
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
159.41
|
Trades
|
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.01
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
126.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
126.81
|
Trades
|
Will Snoop smoke again in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
118.38
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
118.38
|
Trades
|
Will $USDT depeg by June 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 30 2023
|
β
|
106.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
106.70
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after its March meeting? |
Yes |
No |
465.09
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7773
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
465.09
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 22 2023
|
β
|
-361.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
103.59
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH hit $1,000 or $2,000 first? |
1k |
2k |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
89.07
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
89.07
|
Trades
|
Will Magnus play Hans by EoY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
68.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
68.00
|
Trades
|
Will Interpol issue a Red Notice for CZ by April 14? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Apr 14 2023
|
β
|
50.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
50.50
|
Trades
|
$ARB above $1 one week after launch? |
Yes |
No |
100.12
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.5288
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
100.12
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-52.95
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
47.17
|
Trades
|
Emmett Shear still CEO of OpenAI by end of week? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
β
|
27.06
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
27.06
|
Trades
|
Will Trump smile in his mugshot? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
β
|
22.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
22.08
|
Trades
|
Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
20.86
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
20.86
|
Trades
|
Will Manchester City win the 2023 Champions League? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 09 2023
|
β
|
18.81
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
18.81
|
Trades
|
Will the Euler hack victims get any money back? |
Yes |
No |
67.57
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.7400
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
67.57
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 31 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
17.57
|
Trades
|
Will First Republic Bank fail by March 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Mar 30 2023
|
β
|
15.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
15.40
|
Trades
|
$ARB above $10 one week after launch? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
1,210.10
|
0.00% |
|
0.9883
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
1,210.10
|
Thu Mar 30 2023
|
β
|
-1,196.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
14.10
|
Trades
|
Will Silvergate announce it is filing for bankruptcy by March 31, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
392.72
|
0.00% |
|
0.9676
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
392.72
|
Fri Mar 31 2023
|
β
|
-380.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.72
|
Trades
|
Will $ARB hit $1 or $2 first? |
$1 first |
$2 first |
62.50
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.8000
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
62.50
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.50
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.0% from February to March 2023? |
Yes |
No |
235.68
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9483
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
235.68
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 11 2023
|
β
|
-223.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
12.18
|
Trades
|
Will OpenAI Merge with Anthropic in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
10.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
10.20
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after its March meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
549.02
|
0.00% |
|
0.9819
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
549.02
|
Wed Mar 22 2023
|
β
|
-539.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
9.93
|
Trades
|
$ARB above $2 one week after launch? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
408.16
|
0.00% |
|
0.9800
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
408.16
|
Thu Mar 30 2023
|
β
|
-400.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
8.16
|
Trades
|
Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Halloween? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Oct 31 2023
|
β
|
6.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.40
|
Trades
|
Arbitrum token FDV >$5b one week after launch? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Mar 30 2023
|
β
|
6.38
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.38
|
Trades
|
Will Musk fight Zuck in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
6.38
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.38
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after its May meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 02 2023
|
β
|
5.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.00
|
Trades
|
Will Peter Obi be elected as President of Nigeria in the upcoming 2023 Presidential Election? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
104.17
|
0.00% |
|
0.9600
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
104.17
|
Sat Feb 25 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.17
|
Trades
|
Will Tiktok be banned in the US by May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9700
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
100.00
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
β
|
-97.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
3.00
|
Trades
|
Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st? |
Yes |
No |
2.30
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
-0.1174
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
2.30
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 31 2023
|
β
|
0.27
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.57
|
Trades
|
Will CZ be arrested by April 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
152.03
|
0.00% |
|
0.9866
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
152.03
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
β
|
-150.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.03
|
Trades
|
Ethereum Shanghai Upgrade by April 15? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9800
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
100.00
|
0.00
|
Sat Apr 15 2023
|
β
|
-98.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
2.00
|
Trades
|
Will Interpol issue a Red Notice for CZ by Friday? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
101.01
|
0.00% |
|
0.9900
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
101.01
|
Fri Apr 07 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.01
|
Trades
|
Will Arbitrum's token address have a letter in it? |
Yes |
No |
52.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.9900
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
52.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
β
|
-51.48
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.52
|
Trades
|
Will Elon's Twitter name still be 'Harry BΕlz' on April 12? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
50.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.9900
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
50.00
|
Wed Apr 12 2023
|
β
|
-49.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.50
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50 bps after its May meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue May 02 2023
|
β
|
0.45
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.45
|
Trades
|
Balaji Bet: BTC > $1m USD on June 17? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.33
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.33
|
Sat Jun 17 2023
|
β
|
-0.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.01
|
Trades
|
Will 'John Wick: Chapter 4' gross more than $70 million domestically on its opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0200
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 26 2023
|
β
|
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Will Trump be arrested by Friday? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0200
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 24 2023
|
β
|
-2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.00
|
Trades
|
Will $BTC reach $30,000 by April 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
215.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.0100
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
β
|
-2.15
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.15
|
Trades
|
Binance insolvent in 2023? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-2.37
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-2.37
|
Trades
|
Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by April 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
51.02
|
0.00% |
|
1.0689
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
51.02
|
Sat Apr 01 2023
|
β
|
-54.54
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-3.51
|
Trades
|
Will 'John Wick: Chapter 4' gross more than $80 million domestically on its opening weekend? |
Yes |
No |
50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.2000
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 26 2023
|
β
|
-10.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.00
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
β
|
-10.44
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-10.44
|
Trades
|
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.11
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.11
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
β
|
-11.22
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-11.11
|
Trades
|
OpenAI board out by end of week? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Nov 26 2023
|
β
|
-19.76
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-19.76
|
Trades
|
Will Andrew Tate be released by April 30? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.4600
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Apr 30 2023
|
β
|
-46.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-46.00
|
Trades
|
Will Sam Altman testify before congress by May 31? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
56.18
|
0.00% |
|
0.8900
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed May 31 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50 bps after its March meeting? |
Yes |
No |
1,060.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0472
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 22 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.5000
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Jun 23 2023
|
β
|
-50.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-50.00
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH moon after Shanghai? |
Yes |
No |
40.03
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
1.3667
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-54.70
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-54.70
|
Trades
|
Will the Turkish Central Bank raise interest rates at its June meeting? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
223.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.2466
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Thu Jun 22 2023
|
β
|
-55.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-55.00
|
Trades
|
Sam Altman announces new company by Nov 24? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Nov 24 2023
|
β
|
-62.91
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-62.91
|
Trades
|
Will Hikaru win the 2023 American Cup? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
200.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.3350
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Mar 26 2023
|
β
|
-67.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-67.00
|
Trades
|
Ilya still at OpenAI on Jan 1? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Mon Jan 01 2024
|
β
|
-70.54
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-70.54
|
Trades
|
Will Western Alliance Bancorp fail by March 17? |
Yes |
No |
100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.8035
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 15 2023
|
β
|
-80.35
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-80.35
|
Trades
|
Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023? |
Yes |
No |
927.95
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
1.0894
|
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
927.95
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 31 2023
|
β
|
-1,010.89
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-82.93
|
Trades
|
Will ETH hit $2,000 by EOY? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
100.00
|
0.00% |
|
0.8800
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Sun Dec 31 2023
|
β
|
-88.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-88.00
|
Trades
|
Will $ETH be above $1700 on March 24? |
Yes |
No |
0.00
|
276.19
|
0.00% |
|
0.3403
|
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Fri Mar 24 2023
|
β
|
-94.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-94.00
|
Trades
|
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.2% from February to March 2023? |
Yes |
No |
227.27
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.4400
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Tue Apr 11 2023
|
β
|
-100.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-100.00
|
Trades
|
Will Schwab fail by March 17? |
Yes |
No |
3,815.89
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.0691
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 15 2023
|
β
|
-263.85
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-263.85
|
Trades
|
Will First Republic Bank fail by March 17? |
Yes |
No |
0.01
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 15 2023
|
β
|
-523.64
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-523.64
|
Trades
|
Will Bank of America fail by March 17? |
Yes |
No |
9,605.00
|
0.00
|
0.00% |
0.1031
|
|
0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
Wed Mar 15 2023
|
β
|
-990.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-990.20
|
Trades
|
Resolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,013.22
|
3,118.68
|
|
|
96,520.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
101,652.15
|
|
Unresolved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
|
0.38
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.38
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,013.22
|
3,118.68
|
|
|
96,520.63
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
101,652.53
|
|